2023 French Open Men’s Draw Preview | Analysis & Tips For Roland-Garros

With no Rafael Nadal in the draw and question marks surrounding Novak Djokovic’s form, will we see a new name on the Roland-Garros trophy for the first time since Stan Wawrinka in 2015?

The Swiss three-time Grand Slam champion is present in the draw, but it would seem very unlikely that the 37-year-old could repeat that triumph. Instead, an emerging set of players look set to challenge Djokovic for the crown.

Carlos Alcaraz is the favourite for the title. The Spanish US Open champion has been the dominant player on the clay in 2023, winning or reaching the final of all his clay-court tournaments, except last time out in Rome. That loss to Fabian Marozsan, who has failed to qualify for the main draw, alongside concerns over long-term physicality, mean that Alcaraz is far from rock-solid at the top.

Holger Rune has emerged as a big player in the 2023 clay swing. The Dane won the Munich title, and made finals in Monte Carlo and Rome.

Last year’s finalist Casper Ruud has had a very mixed season, Alexander Zverev can say similar but he does have consecutive semi-final appearances at this Grand Slam event. Stefanos Tsitsipas, Daniil Medvedev, and, of course, Novak Djokovic, are all realistic contenders for the title as well.

The top sixteen seeds, and a few interesting outsiders, have been analysed. The factors taken into account in this analysis are:

• 2023 Clay Court Record
• Career Clay Court Record
• Roland Garros win/loss record
• Recent form
• Recent form vs Top 10 ranked players
• The last three French Opens

French Open 2023 Men’s Draw Betting Tips

Daniil Medvedev 1.5pt EW 17/2 @ Skybet

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Event In Focus: French Open Men’s Draw

Obviously this is the culmination of the clay court swing on the ATP Tour. There is a lot of information that can be useful to us when assessing the players for this event. However, the fact that this is a 5-set, seven-round event, does put a different kind of strain on the players, and that will be taken into account in the final analysis.

Ranking Analysis

Carlos Alcaraz sits at the top of all of the appropriate rankings ahead of the action. He is now world number one, and that is supported by his clay ELO rating as well. The bookmakers support the idea that he is the most likely winner of the tournament.

Novak Djokovic’s rankings have slipped a bit, his official ranking is still hurting from the lack of Wimbledon 2022 points, with those included he would still be a clear number one. However, his recent clay court form has seen him be overtaken by a few players in the ELO ratings for the surface.

Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev are two players that standout as having much better clay-court ratings than their actual rankings.

Tommy Paul’s clay ELO rating is very poor indeed, this appears to be a bit of a North American trait, as Felix Auger-Aliassime and Taylor Fritz also are rated lower on clay than their rankings.

The bookmakers can’t separate a lot of the players behind the key favourites. The prices go up fairly steeply outside of the main six or so contenders, this isn’t necessarily reflected in the rankings in that way.

2023 ATP Tour Clay Court Form

In what could be a fairly well used statement, Carlos Alcaraz’s data in 2023 is by far and away the most impressive in the field. He is running at a games won rating of 121, holding serve over 80% of the time but breaking his opponents almost 40% of the time as well. Neither of those figures are actually the best in the field, but in combination, it is pretty devastating for his opponents.

Jannik Sinner actually is the closest in the field to that total. However, Sinner’s actual win/loss record isn’t as good, and he hasn’t played the whole clay swing. This may enhance his chances physically, as the Italian looked fairly burnt out after a really busy opening to 2023.

Daniil Medvedev is a player that shows up really well on his clay data in 2023. Though the Russian has talked his clay-court ability down in recent years, he has definitely risen to the occasion this year and his data is world class. Alexander Zverev has had on-running battles with Medvedev this season and not come out of them well, but his general data is still good.

Hubert Hurkacz and Tommy Paul have losing records this season, and have lost more games than they have won. Felix Auger-Aliassime doesn’t have much clay court tennis under his belt ahead of this Grand Slam.

Career Clay Court Analysis

Djokovic is actually still edging out Alcaraz in terms of games won in their careers on clay. The young Spaniard does have a slight edge on win percentage though.

Other players that have been world class in their careers on clay include Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud. Jannik Sinner just about breaks the 110 games won rating too.

There are a lot of players in the selection who hover around the 50% win line, and three players that have actually lost more games in their career on clay than won: Tommy Paul, Frances Tiafoe, and Auger-Aliassime.

Interestingly, Nicolas Jarry ties with Tsitsipas as the player who most regularly holds their serve on clay. Jarry is still in action this week, so may overtake Tsitsipas by the time the French Open begins.

Form & Roland Garros Record

This is where Novak Djokovic and his great history shine through. His record at Roland-Garros is incredible, especially when considering Rafael Nadal’s dominance of the event. Whilst his recent form is a concern, 60% is exceptionally low for the Serbian, his recent record against the best is unmatched in the field by some distance. Usually, when the going gets tough, the 22-time Grand Slam Champion gets going.

Alcaraz has the best recent form in the draw, but Jan-Lennard Struff, Rune, and Medvedev are also flying along right now.

Karen Khachanov could be a sneaky one. He stands out as having a good Roland-Garros record, without having much else in the analysis to help him stand out. The Russian has made consecutive Grand Slam semi-finals, could he have found a way to peak for the big events?

It is interesting to note that neither Francisco Cerundolo or Nicolas Jarry yet have a main draw win to their name here. Frances Tiafoe has gone 1-7 in the main draw too.

French Open Men’s Draw

Roland-Garros, like all Grand Slams, has a 32-seed, 128-player draw.

French Open Betting Tips

The draw has really made this tipping section more difficult. Alcaraz and Djokovic being in the same half has given pause for thought on pulling the trigger on Alcaraz. The Spaniard is the most dominant player in the draw, but if the pair did meet in the semi-finals that would mean that Djokovic has played his way into the tournament. There are still some concerns over Alcaraz’s physical capabilities over an extended period of time and if he was to extend his first week unneccesarily then that could be a real problem.

The alternatives are hard to find though. Jannik Sinner’s data makes me want to keep him onside, but he could have successive matches against Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev, and Holger Rune to even reach the final.

Daniil Medvedev 1.5pt EW 17/2 @ Skybet

A combination of data and draw has lead me to the conclusion that Medvedev is the pick of the betting opportunities here. Let us ignore the fact that he was probably a much better price earlier in the season when people, wrongly, assumed that he couldn’t perform on clay.

The numbers that Medvedev has produced this season on clay are world class, close to anyone’s except Alcaraz. The manner in which he has done it as well is cause for optimism. A good showing at Monte Carlo early in the swing, followed by steady improvement, then a run all the way to the title in Rome. He has been his usual assured self from the baseline and has made life really tough for everyone he has played.

The draw is pretty soft for Medvedev too. The quarter-final is the first time he could meet another big player, Sinner or Zverev most likely, and he holds the upper hand in both of those match-ups. The semi-final could be Holger Rune, whom he just beat in Rome.

Winning the title vs either Alcaraz or Djokovic may prove a step too far. However, he is already a Grand Slam champion, he is proven to be a serial winner, there is nothing on that side to prove.