ATP Houston Tips, Preview & Analysis | Our Picks For This Week’s Tennis

Andy Watson in Tennis Betting Tips 03 Apr 2023

The hard court season is over. Long live the big serving and big forehands of the US Clay Court Championships in Houston.

This tournament began all the way back in 1910 to encourage clay court tournaments. It is fair to say that the trend didn’t necessarily catch on as this is the only ATP tour clay court event held in the United States. It is also fair to say that the United States hasn’t produced many quality clay court players, especially since the likes of Jim Courier in the 1990’s.

This tournament, however, is not like the typical European or even South American clay court event. The conditions are such that the players that perform well here tend to be those that you would more readily associate with quick, indoor-style conditions. Steve Johnson has won this event twice, and he has a wildcard into the 2023 draw as well.

Other previous champions include John Isner, Jack Sock, Mardy Fish, Ivo Karlovic, and Andy Roddick (three times). This list gives an indication of the type of tournament this is. Christian Garin and Juan Monaco have also won recently so a touch of clay court ability can also certainly help here.

There are three ATP and two WTA tournaments across the globe this week. All five tournaments have previews available to read onsite.

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ATP Houston Betting Tips

Frances Tiafoe 1.5pt @ 9/2 at BetVictor

Cristian Garin 1pt @ 17/2 at Bet365

Max Purcell 0.25pt EW @ 100/1 at Bet365

Event In Focus: ATP Houston

This is a tournament that requires an interesting mix of big serving, powerful play, but also some clay court skills can also take you a long way. The surface is clay, even if it isn’t the same composition of clay that is used in Europe and South America, so the players’ clay court data has been collated alongside their 2023 data so far.

Analysis

The top two seeds are a class apart in this draw. Frances Tiafoe and Tommy Paul have spent almost all of their time after the early Australian swing back home playing the hard court tournaments and they have been relatively successful in doing so. They are responsible for the two highest win percentages and the best games won percentages in the field.

Also worthy of mention is Cristian Garin. The Chilean has had a tough couple of years, but has played a mixture of clay and hard court events in the last few months and has a good win percentage, as well as a high games won tally. He also has one of the better clay ELO rankings in the field. Hugo Dellien is in a very similar position to Garin and it is these two that meet in the opening round. The winner of that match could be a real contender here.

In terms of players who come out of this poorly, Steve Johnson looks semi-retired here. Jack Sock is showing flashes but is nowhere near his best level. Brandon Nakashima does have a game that could do well here, but on form his price is terrifically short.

Clay Court History

Two players previously mentioned stand out in the clay court career history. Garin and Dellien have two of the best records in the field. Jack Sock’s career history on clay is good if he can recapture that this week, but his current form figure is very poor.

Interestingly, all of the top seeds have pretty poor records on clay. Tiafoe, Paul, and Nakashima all have losing records on tour, but John Isner has done pretty well overall across his long career. Jordan Thompson’s clay court record is shockingly poor, but he is very much in-form when taking into account his Challenger Tour data as well as his ATP Tour matches.

Max Purcell and Garin also demonstrate good form alongside Tiafoe and Paul. Steve Johnson is really struggling and most players have around a 50% win rate recently.

ATP Houston Draw

Houston has a 8-seed, 32-man draw. The top 4 seeds will be given a bye into the second round and the qualifying slots will be finalised on Monday.

ATP Houston Betting Tips

Frances Tiafoe 1.5pt @ 9/2 at BetVictor

The top seed deserves backing here. There definitely is a separation between himself and the rest of the players in the top half of the draw in terms of overall quality. Tiafoe is short of outright tournament wins, but there must be a desire to change that this season as he grows in experience and maturity.

His game matches up well to what is needed to win this title. The reason that he is supported over Tommy Paul is because of his better serve and forehand combination, which should be effective here in Houston.

Cristian Garin 1pt @ 17/2 at Bet365

This tip will probably come as no surprise after reading this article. Garin fits a lot of the data trends required to do well at this tournament, as well as being a former champion here, which proves that he reacts well to these particular conditions.

He has a really tricky opening match against Hugo Dellien, but Garin should be favoured to win that match and then I like his chances in his section of the draw with Brandon Nakashima as the main opposition, but someone that I am happy to oppose here.

Max Purcell 0.25pt EW @ 100/1 at Bet365

The Australian has been one of the big form players on the Challenger circuit this year with three consecutive titles and another final last week as well.

Though his clay court skill is in doubt, he has a lot of confidence at the moment and is more than worth a little tickle at a big price.