With the French Open just around the corner it is worth taking a quick look into the markets and identifying…
French Open 2023 Betting Tips | Best pre-draw selections for Roland Garros
With the French Open just around the corner it is worth taking a quick look into the markets and identifying a couple of value plays before the draw comes out.
Women’s Draw
Iga Swiatek is the overwhelming favourite to win a third Roland-Garros title. The Pole is a fantastic player, possibly the best that has been around on the clay for decades.
However, there has been vulnerability in Swiatek’s demeanour this year. Swiatek has continued to swot aside most players, often in straight sets, and often with a very one-sided scoreline. On the other hand, the world number one has been beaten eight times, if you include the exhibitions and last year’s WTA Finals, in quite concerning fashion. All defeats were in the latter stages of a tournament, and on most occasions, there has been little real resistance or tactical adaptation by Swiatek.
In other words, at the prices, Swiatek is worth taking on. But, who with?
Aryna Sabalenka (PA Sport)
Aryna Sabalenka 1pt 6/1 @ SkyBet
Probably the most obvious choice, but, alongside Swiatek, Sabalenka’s numbers are totally dominant over the rest of the field.
The Belarusian is already a Grand Slam champion from Australia, this seems to have given her more confidence though. Her imposing game has beaten everyone this season, but she has really improved her form on clay.
Having beaten Swiatek in Madrid, she now has the confidence to know that she can do it, even on the dirt. Madrid’s altitude will have helped, undoubtedly, but a win of any kind was required to plant the seed of doubt in Swiatek’s mind.
Other Contenders
The only other players that were under consideration at the prices were Paula Badosa and Belinda Bencic. Badosa has been creeping steadily into form, but lacks the big match mentality and experience to feel confident in getting a return on the money.
Bencic hasn’t taken to the courts since reaching the Charleston final. The Swiss hasn’t, therefore, played on European clay this swing and, in all reality, it would be a big shock if she could win the title from no tournament preparation. 66/1 is a big price for Bencic though if she does play, and can play her way into match fitness.
Men’s Draw
The two big hitters at the top of the market are Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic. At the moment, both players have question marks over them, enough to make it easy to swerve them in the betting here.
Alcaraz has been the dominant player on the clay in 2023, with three title wins from five tournaments entered. However, though he has been dominant, there have been too many physical issues in 2023 to have faith that the young Spaniard will last out the fortnight at top physical ability.
Novak Djokovic has looked far from his best on the clay. Usually, by this stage, the Serbian has demonstrated a pretty good level in Rome and comes into Roland-Garros in good shape. Improvement will undoubtedly be going on behind-the-scenes and Djokovic is the master of preparation and peaking at the right time. From a betting perspective though, he is too short to back.
2J6GPXX (220502) — MUNICH, May 2, 2022 (Xinhua) — Holger Rune of Denmark celebrates with the trophy during the awarding ceremony of the BMW Open 2022 in Munich, Germany, on May 1, 2022. Holger Rune claimed the title after Botic van de Zandschulp was forced to retire from the final due to an injury. (Photo by Philippe Ruiz/Xinhua)
Holger Rune 1pt 8/1 @ SkyBet
The Dane has proven that he is capable of beating the best, Novak Djokovic, twice. Both matches are significant in that one was in the final of a Masters event, Paris 2022, and then again on clay, in Rome.
There are still a lot of questions to answer for Rune. His temperament is one of those, it can inspire him to greatness, but can it also encourage him to be tight in the wrong moments. However, there is no doubt in my mind that he will win at least one Roland-Garros in his career.
His price is getting short now, but a favourable draw would see the 2022 semi-finalist challenge at that level again.
2R2XG5X Rome, Italy. 21st May 2023; Foro Italico, Rome, Italy: ATP 1000 Masters Rome, Day 14; Daniil Medvedev celebrates as he wins the mens singles tournament and trophy against Holger Rune 7-5 7-5 Credit: Action Plus Sports Images/Alamy Live News
Daniil Medvedev 1pt 14/1 @ Bet365
No doubt that Medvedev’s price would’ve been a lot more tasty a few weeks ago when everyone, probably including Medvedev himself, thought he couldn’t play his game on clay.
However, he has found his way on the surface in 2023. There have been signs all throughout the clay swing, culminating in that fantastic run to the title in Rome. The Rome champion often goes on to win the title in Paris, of course, those players have almost always been Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic in the last twenty years, but still, it will give the 2021 US Open champion confidence that he can win at the highest level on this surface.
He defeated Stefanos Tsitsipas and Holger Rune in that run, both men are shorter in the betting. Medvedev is a proven Grand Slam champion and former world number one that has better numbers on this clay swing than both men. He is the best bet at the top of the market.
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