Marketa Vondrousova v Ons Jabeur betting tips | Wimbledon Final Predictions

The tennis purists are surely purring at the thought of this Marketa Vondrousova vs Ons Jabeur Ladies Singles Final on Wimbledon’s famous Centre Court on Saturday.

Whilst the Wimbledon crowd may have wanted to see Elina Svitolina in the final, and news outlets around the world salivated at thr thought of a Ukraine v Belarus final, many neutral observers are delighted to see these two shotmakers contest the showpiece final.

There will be a new name on the Venus Rosewater Dish as neither Vondrousova or Jabeur have been victorious at SW19. Indeed, it will be the fifth new name on the trophy in a row as we continue a theme of new Wimbledon champions in the women’s game.

Vondrousova Proves Too Much For Her Opponents

The Olympic Silver Medallist came into this tournament as the Czech #7. This is remarkable , but symbolic of two things: one, the strength of Czech women’s tennis and, two, the fact that Vondrousova herself was on the injury comeback trail still.

The 24-year-old had three wrist surgeries in 2022, so it is remarkable that she has come back to this level at all. Whilst the game has moved towards power and speed, Vondrousova, whilst having a decent amount of those things, is something of a throwback.

She has all the skills needed on the court. The versatility makes her a really tricky opponent, and whilst she has always been more fancied on a clay court, this run has shown that she can play on grass too. Elina Svitolina was the latest player to fail to find the answers to Vondrousova’s “junk ball”. The speed, spin, depth and trajectory of Vondrousova’s shots seem to change all the time. This puts her opponents off-balance and they simply cannot get settled into the match.

Vondrousova does have some mental baggage to overcome though. She lost the 2019 French Open final to Iga Swiatek and also the 2020 (but played in 2021) Olympic Final to Belinda Bencic. Can she go one better this time?

Jabeur On A Revenge Mission

Speaking of mental baggage though, it is Ons Jabeur who surely has luggage to check here. The Tunisian came into the Wimbledon final last year as the favourite and with the weight of history riding on her shoulders. Whilst that history, first African and Arab tennis player to potentially win a Grand Slam event, is still there, with Jabeur having reached two finals (last year’s US Open as well) the press coverage of that side of things hasn’t felt quite so intense.

The majority of the crowd will probably be on her side on Centre Court. She is a popular figure in the game, both in the crowd and in the locker room. Jabeur even stated in her interview after her semi-final that the crowd kept her in the match against Aryna Sabalenka.

Jabeur has been on a rarely-seen run. She is the first player in almost 20 years to have beaten three top ten seeds to reach the final. To have done so from a set down in the quarter-final and semi-final speaks to her confidence, belief, determination, and quality. She will need all of those characteristics and more to seal the title.

Wimbledon Final Analysis

Jabeur also mentioned in press that she has lost to Marketa Vondrousova twice already this year. These losses have come in big events as well, in the Australian Open and in Indian Wells. Advantage Vondrousova from that perspective, she clearly has a good strategy against Jabeur, and her game has worked against the Tunisian there.

However, the overall head-to-head is tied at 3-3, and more recent matches are tied at 2-2. These include a meeting on grass at Eastbourne in 2021, their only previous encounter on this surface.

Jabeur has a much better career grass court record than Vondrousova overall. The Czech had only four grass court wins to her name ahead of this tournament, now she is in double figures. Jabeur had one of the best grass records in the tournament, even before we began two weeks ago. The consistency is there for the 2022 runner-up.

Looking into their form from Wimbledon in more depth, Jabeur’s numbers look very impressive.

Despite having the harder run in terms of opponents played, it is Jabeur who dominates the stats in their respective Wimbledon 2023 performances. The extra bit of pop on the Jabeur serve has helped here, but as has the fact that she has played serve-dominant players. Petra Kvitova, Elena Rybakina, and Sabalenka are all players who are strong on serve, but not so hot on return.

Final Verdict & Tips

Ons Jabeur to win the match, serve the most aces and Marketa Vondrousova to serve the most double faults – 2pts @ 13/8 with Bet365 (accessible via Bet Builder)

Ultimately, Jabeur is the player who comes into the final with the more impressive form. There is little in the head-to-head and it won’t be an easy match for either player, but the focus from Jabeur will surely not allow what happened last year to occur again.

Under 5.5 breaks of serve – 1pt @ 11/10 with Bet365

Despite the skill of both players, serve should still dominate. If this is a straight sets victory either way then this line seems fairly steep and is a much better price than the 8/13 for two sets to be played.

Neither player to face break point in their opening service games – 1pt @ 7/5 (accessible via Bet Builder)

It is always difficult to know how players will settle into a final, but both are confident characters and will want to assert themselves on the final from the start. This is an attractive price for this market.