WTA Miami Tips, Predictions & Analysis | Our Picks For This Week’s Tennis

Andy Watson in Tennis Betting Tips 22 Mar 2023

Elena Rybakina took the honours in Indian Wells, but can the Kazakh player follow Iga Swiatek’s example from 2022 and complete the Sunshine Double?

Miami is the third WTA 1000 series event of the season and the third to be defended by Swiatek. The Pole has so far failed to defend in Dubai and Indian Wells, losing in straight sets on both occasions. Indeed, Swiatek hasn’t played a three-set match so far in 2023.

The world #1 is still the favourite for the title here in Miami though. The draw is actually very similar to the one in Indian Wells, with two of her biggest threats, Barbora Krejcikova and Aryna Sabalenka down together in the bottom quarter. Again, Rybakina is in Swiatek’s half as well so the script is set up for a fairly similar tournament story.

The ATP Miami in-depth preview is also on site to read.

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WTA Indian Wells Betting Tips

Aryna Sabalenka 2pt @ 11/2 with Bet365

Belinda Bencic 0.75pt EW @ 25/1 with Bet365

Petra Kvitova 0.25pt @ 100/1 with Bet365

Event In Focus: WTA Miami

The analysis grid this week doesn’t cover the whole field. The sixteen seeded players are covered alongside other fancied players from outside of the top 16 seedings.

Rankings & 12-month Form


Interestingly, despite a heavy semifinal loss in Indian Wells, Iga Swiatek’s games won data actually improved for the last twelve months. The Pole’s year form remains exceptionally strong, though I’m sure that she is more than ready to get out on the clay after a few months on hard courts.

It is Barbora Krejcikova that is closest to Swiatek in terms of games won percentage. There is no doubt that the Czech has come back to be a major player, and she is another one that will be eager for the switch to clay that is coming up after Miami. Aryna Sabalenka, Marketa Vondrousova, Jessica Pegula, and Belinda Bencic all score over 111 for games won with Vondousova a stand out at the prices in that selection of players. However, she has a dangerously small sample size at the moment after an injury lay off.

Karolina Pliskova’s drop in form is fairly stark here. After around a decade at the top of the game, especially on hard court, her service data in particular has slid to become only average amongst the other top players. Petra Kvitova and Caroline Garcia show up as having particularly poor return games amongst the elite players as well.

Hard Court & Other Form Data

Taking into account the surface type in Miami we are able to break down the players’ career performance on hard courts on the WTA Tour. These records include qualifying rounds. With the best players in the world here it was worth compiling the players’ recent record against the Top 10. Also, a new addition to the form charts is looking at how many WTA level tournaments players had won over the last 12 months and also in their careers.

As we know from previous previews Iga Swiatek is the queen of the hard courts now with the best record across her whole career. It is her remarkable return data that allows her to be so dominant, especially against the lesser players, and she is totally ruthless on court. Hence why we see so many 6-0 and 6-1 sets for her, which also helps these statistics.

The other players over the magic 110 mark (generally considered to be the mark of elite level) are Victoria Azarenka and Aryna Sabalenka. Azarenka has the odd event, usually Grand Slams now, where she seems to be able to summon up this sort of level, but it feels like it is increasingly rare to see that version of Azarenka. However, it is the opposite with her countrywoman, Sabalenka. The Australian Open champion has become really consistent of late with her level and that mark will probably only rise now for the next few months and years.

There are a few players that have had up and down careers that don’t reflect quite as well in the career-long data. Caroline Garcia, Donna Vekic, Daria Kasatkina, and Beatriz Haddad Maia, are a on a bit of an up at the moment but their data reflects their relative struggles over the course of their careers.

Important Form Points

No player is on a huge winning streak at the moment, which is obvious really when the entire field just played Indian Wells and therefore only Elena Rybakina is on any kind of winning streak.

Swiatek obviously has excellent form against the other greats of the game, and as does Rybakina after recent tournaments. Interestingly, Haddad Maia and Krejcikova can also seem to raise their game against the best. Ons Jabeur and Coco Gauff clearly have something to improve in the hardest matches, as does Azarenka at the moment.

The only player assessed who is still awaiting her maiden WTA Tour title is Qinwen Zheng. However, it is interesting to note that some top ranked players, such as Jessica Pegula, Ons Jabeur, Maria Sakkari, and Coco Gauff, have fewer titles between them than either Swiatek or Sabalenka. Many players have no titles in the last year.

WTA Miami Draw

Miami has a 32-seed, 96-player draw. The 32 seeds will be given a bye into the second round.

 

WTA Miami Betting Tips

Despite the statistical dominance of Iga Swiatek, there is an increasing feeling of vulnerability about the world #1. Her second serve, in particular, is being preyed upon and Elena Rybakina has pulverised her with brute force twice now this season. The Kazakh has more than halved in price from last week and that is understandable, if frustrating for people wanting to back her.

Aryna Sabalenka 2pts @ 11/2 with Bet365

Sabalenka is floating around the world at the moment after her Australian Open triumph. The way that she is speaking and acting off-court gives me great confidence that when she plays that she will be able to maintain her positivity regardless of scoreline or form.

She was a point away from the first set in the final at Indian Wells and if she had won that opening set then that would’ve obviously made her strong favourite there. She will have to get over the Krejcikova hurdle early in the tournament again as she did last week, but I have faith in her to do that and then she is on such a wave of confidence that I don’t see anyone else in her half, except perhaps one person, giving her trouble.

Belinda Bencic 1pt EW @ 22/1 with Bet365

The person referred to above is Belinda Bencic. A massively disappointing exit in the opening round against Jil Teichmann was not what Bencic would’ve wanted or expected at Indian Wells, but she is possibly in with a better chance here because of that.

Bencic has played a lot of tennis, at a high level, in 2023. The conditions in Miami are a bit more suited to her game, she reached the semifinal here last year, and her draw is pretty good. That extra rest between Sunshine Double tournaments could really help her out, especially against the big players who went deep last week.

Petra Kvitova 0.25pt @ 100/1 with Bet365

I just think that this price insults the two-time Wimbledon champion. Her data may have dropped a little recently but she showed only last week that she can absolutely still compete at the top of the game. Her win against Jessica Pegula was probably match of the tournament and she reached the final of the WTA1000 event in Cincinnati only last year.

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