ATP Buenos Aires Betting Tips and Predictions: Our Picks For This Week’s Tennis

Andy Watson in ATP Tour 13 Feb 2023

The Golden Swing continues on the ATP Tour as the circus moves on to Buenos Aires. Sebastien Baez took the Cordoba crown, but Carlos Alcaraz makes his return here in his quest to become the next King of Clay.

ATP Buenos Aires is played on a typically slow red clay court where conditions suit a patient game style. The tennis will be low on aces but high on attrition, which makes it suitable for a player at full fitness and preferably with some recent clay court tennis in the bank.

Diego Schwartzman has a really good record here but has no recent form to speak of, being beaten in the opening round by Juan Manuel Cerundolo last week. Another trend to watch for here, as opposed to Cordoba, is that the big European clay court specialists tend to come in and do well, Casper Ruud (x2), Dominic Thiem (x2), David Ferrer (x3) and even Rafael Nadal himself have come over to South America and pilfered the gold.

ATP Buenos Aires Betting Tips

Lorenzo Musetti 2pt EW @ 10/1 (Bet365)

In the theme of European clay court specialists doing well here, my main tip is Lorenzo Musetti. Musetti didn’t enjoy the greatest preparation for the Australian Open having played second seed for the Italian team at the United Cup. That meant he was playing players far too lowly ranked to test him.

However, Musetti is a real clay court animal. His career win % on clay is 10% higher than any other surface and he went 21-7 on the surface last year. Though this is his first trip to South America, he won the Hamburg ATP500 tournament against Carlos Alcaraz on clay last year so he has top line pedigree for this tournament. The bottom half of the draw is very open and it is worth taking the each way as Alcaraz sits in the opposite half.

Albert Ramos-Vinolas 0.5pt EW @ 18/1 (Bet365)

We will have another stab with Albert Ramos after last week’s near miss in Cordoba. Ramos got to the semifinals last week before allowing valuable set points to go amiss against Federico Coria.

However, valuable clay court practice has now been done and Ramos doesnt have a bad record at Buenos Aires. He is due to meet Cameron Norrie in the quarterfinals but the Brit hasn’t got as many clay court matches under his belt as Ramos would have and the veteran Spaniard would be a tricky hurdle for Norrie to get over.

The Main Draw

Buenos Aires is a 28-man draw with 8 seeded players. The top four seeds all receive a bye to the second round. The qualifiers will be finalised on Monday.