As is the tradition, the ATP Finals brings the curtain down on the 2023 ATP season and one of the…
As is the tradition, the ATP Finals brings the curtain down on the 2023 ATP season and one of the top eight players of the year is crowned ATP Finals Champion.
The finals have been played since the advent of the ATP Tour in 1970, and have seen many incarnations and champions.
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ATP Finals Betting Tips
Event In Focus: ATP Finals
The finals consist of a round-robin group stage, with two players qualifying from each group. Those players will then play in a knockout format until a champion is crowned.
There are profiles of all eight of the finalists here.
All eight players have been assessed statistically and historically to try and get a handle on how the event could pan out.
There seems to be a bit of a 4-4 split in the players for the finals when looking at their seasonal data.
Whilst Novak Djokovic has a clear edge in both win rate and games won, it is Daniil Medvedev that arrives to the finals with the most match wins so far this season.
Djokovic has chosen his events wisely this year, and has been ridiculously successful, suffering only five defeats all year. Three of those defeats were to players in this field: to Medvedev in Dubai, to Rune in Rome, and to Alcaraz in the Wimbledon final.
Carlos Alcaraz has had a stellar season by most standards and has the best break of serve rate in the field.
The bottom four players in the rankings are way down on the top four in most metrics. They have earned far fewer points they all have win rate in the 60% range, other than Andrey Rublev, and they all have game win percentages under 110%.
Indoor Hard Court History & Form
Again, obviously, the greatest tennis player in history dominates the numbers on indoor hard. Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev have excellent records too, but the stand out information here is how poor Carlos Alcaraz’s record is on indoor hard. The Spaniard is still very inexperienced indoors, only 17 matches on tour, but has not shown signs of his dominance elsewhere in these conditions yet. Holger Rune’s serve has been superb indoors as well.
Djokovic comes into this event on a 17-match winning streak, having not tasted defeat since the Wimbledon final. Jannik Sinner also comes in in good form, though he had to withdraw from his last event due to poor scheduling on the tournament’s part. Zverev and Rune haven’t been as impressive only winning half of their last ten matches.
Jannik Sinner’s career record against the top ten is a big concern, though he has a good winning record this year. Djokovic is 88% against the top ten this season, which is better than anyone else in the world against the regular tour, never mind the top ten.
Zverev and Tsitsipas have been particularly poor against top ten rivals this season.
ATP Finals Draw
Holger Rune has to be pleased with his draw. He has only tasted defeat against Djokovic in his group, and even then, he is the only player at the finals other than Alcaraz to not have a losing record against the great Serbian.
Jannik Sinner has a terrible draw according to his head-to-head, he has a poor record against all of his opponents here.
Novak Djokovic will feel confident in progressing from this group.
Interestingly, Carlos Alcaraz has a tied record against everyone in this group, though he and Rublev have never met on the main tour.
It is Daniil Medvedev that has the most impressive record from a head-to-head perspective, despite having been hammered by Alcaraz in the Indian Wells final and also in the Wimbledon semi-final, the Russian defeated Alcaraz in the US Open semi-finals to gain a measure of revenge.
Zverev’s record is decent in this group, but his recent form is poor. Rublev always seems to have a problem against the very best, despite looking in decent shape right now.
ATP Finals Betting Tips
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It is easy to see from looking at the data that Djokovic has a clear edge on the field. He should easily qualify from the group, he has only failed to do so once in his last ten finals appearances.
He has won over half of the tournaments he has entered this season, including each of his last three, and three of the four Grand Slams. His chief rival, Carlos Alcaraz, is not in great form, by his standards, and though Djokovic didn’t really ever hit top gear in Paris, he still won.
That Paris win will serve as a great tune up for this event and he will have time to play his way into form without much jeopardy here as well, so that by the time he hits the semi-finals he will be ready.
He could conceivably be almost an even money shot here, so this price is worth taking.
Medvedev looks to have the edge on Alcaraz in many of the data points we have looked at in the piece.
The Russian has the better indoor hard court record by some distance, and has a better head-to-head record against the group than Alcaraz. Whilst he is still right to be second favourite for the group, Alcaraz is the better player overall, there should not be as much between them as there currently is.