ATP Miami Tips, Preview & Analysis | Our Picks For This Week’s Tennis

After a ridiculously high quality tournament in Indian Wells, can wonderkid Carlos Alcaraz become the first man since Roger Federer to complete the Sunshine Double?

Federer completed the double for the third time in 2017, Novak Djokovic made a habit of winning both Indian Wells and Miami back-to-back, having done so between 2014-2016 consecutively, but it is a relatively rare feat. Iga Swiatek managed it last year on the women’s side but was looking very dominant at that time, can Alcaraz do it here?

The cast of opponents will not differ much from those that tried to stop him in California. Daniil Medvedev heads up that posse, but he was effortlessly dismantled by Alcaraz in the final a few days ago. The Russian will be hoping that the likely faster conditions in Florida will play more to his strengths but Medvedev doesn’t have the greatest record in Miami either.

This is John Isner’s only Masters 1000 title, and other recent winners have included Hubert Hurkacz, so having a weighty serve and a powerful game can be an advantage here.

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ATP Miami Betting Tips

Jannik Sinner 1.25pt @ 11/1 at Bet365

Felix Auger-Aliassime 0.75pt EW @ 30/1 at Bet365

Hubert Hurkacz 0.5pt EW @ 33/1 at Bet365

Ben Shelton 0.25pt EW @ 100/1 at Bet365

Event In Focus: ATP Miami

The analysis grids that would usually inhabit this space haven’t been updated since Indian Wells, and regardless, would show little difference from that tournament.

Instead, I have conducted some slightly different research that could be informative ahead of the Miami tournament. Going through the last few editions of the tournament I have collated previous good results from Miami for the key players. Anyone who has reached the last 16 or better has been highlighted. This is alongside updated rankings and bookmaker odds.

Analysis

Frances Tiafoe has been very consistent here, reaching at least the last 16 every year for the last four. Daniil Medvedev boasts a similar record, though perhaps to someone has decorated as Medvedev this would be seen as a fairly disappointing record, especially given that he has been seeded #1 in some of those tournaments.

Jannik Sinner and Hubert Hurkacz met in the 2021 final, and both backed that up fairly well last year. Alexander Zverev has a previous final here too, whereas Taylor Fritz and Stefanos Tsitsipas have been around the final stages but never made it deep.

Carlos Alcaraz Back-to-Back

When assessing the tournament this week it is important to take a very close look at Carlos Alcaraz.

The Spaniard looked invincible last week and fully recovered from the niggle that disturbed him at Rio de Janeiro. However, that niggle surfaced during the final in Rio, having won Buenos Aires the week before.

In trying to assess whether Alcaraz can win back-to-back titles here, it is relevant to look into Alcaraz’s past to see if this is something he has been able to do before in his short career:

ATP Miami Draw

Miami has a 32-seed, 96-man draw. The 32 seeds will be given a bye into the second round.

 

 

ATP Miami Betting Tips

Jannik Sinner 1.25pt @ 11/1 at Bet365

Sinner is yet to win a Masters 1000 title but is a must bet here. In the top half along with Carlos Alcaraz, the Italian is one of the few with a competitive win against the Spaniard, and even though they met in the semifinal last week with Sinner losing in straight sets, the different conditions her could suit Sinner better.

Sinner is a former finalist here as well so he should have positive memories of the place and he is looking supremely confident so far this season with extra help from Darren Cahill in his corner, this could be the tournament for Sinner.

Felix Auger-Aliassime 0.75pt EW @ 30/1 at Bet365

Auger-Aliassime has the game for these courts. He hasn’t gone deep here as often as he would’ve expected but he has a dream draw in the bottom quarter where the main opposition, Stefanos Tsitsipas, seems out of sorts with an injury. Felix will have to get past Frances Tiafoe, but does have a one-sided head-to-head against the American.

Hubert Hurkacz 0.5pt EW @ 33/1 at Bet365

The 2021 champion made a decent defence of that title in 2022, reaching the semifinals. That still gives the Pole plenty of points to defend to keep his top ten ranking intact. He clearly enjoys conditions in Miami and he has a good draw in the bottom half, well away from either Alcaraz or Medvedev, and indeed, I rate his biggest threat to a deep run to be worthy of a little wager as well.

Ben Shelton 0.25pt EW @ 100/1 at Bet365

And that player is Ben Shelton. The young American tyro sneaks into the seedings here at #32, which is very helpful for him as it means he is parachuted into round two, yet he still has a 100/1 price. Shelton is in possession of everything you need to be successful in Miami; a huge serve, athleticism, a great attitude and a big forehand. He will make a big breakthrough sooner rather than later, could this be the one?