ATP Rotterdam Betting Tips and Predictions | Our Picks For This Week’s Tennis

Andy Watson in ATP Tour 14 Feb 2023
Andrey Rublev celebrates (Photo credit: Abaca Press/Alamy Stock Photo)

The biggest tournament on the ATP Tour this week is in Rotterdam, or anywhere. Stefanos Tsitsipas is number one seed and a former finalist here so the Australian Open finalist will be looking to take the title home.

The tournament is held indoors at Rotterdam Ahoy, a multi-purpose arena that has held a wide variety of events and expos. Indoor tennis tends to be quick and suited to players with big serves, or those that have a good record against big servers.

It is an ATP500 tournament so with those extra ranking points and prize money available a good field has been attracted to the Netherlands.

The list of former champions here includes Roger Federer (x3), Stan Wawrinka (in the field), Jo-Wilfred Tsonga, Gael Monfils (x2), Tomas Berdych, and Juan Martin del Potro.

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ATP Rotterdam Betting Tips

Andrey Rublev 1pt @ 15/2 with Bet365

Jannik Sinner 1pt @ 8/1 with Bet365

Event In Focus: ATP Rotterdam

It is an ATP500 tournament so with those extra ranking points and prize money available a good field has been attracted to the Netherlands. We have formulated an analysis grid for the tournament to help us to separate the wheat from the chaff.

Rankings & 12-month Form

The whole remaining field have been assessed across a number of relevant factors to provide some guidance towards who could perform well in this indoor hard court tournament.

Daniil Medvedev leads the favourites in the bookmakers and his 12-month record goes some way to explaining why. It is the feeling in the tennis world that the Russian has lost his edge, however his raw data still has him clear of the field here. Jannik Sinner has the second best games won record in the field, meanwhile Gregoire Barrere stands out in the qualifiers as someone who has done well on the main tour, albeit mainly in the qualifiers rather than the main draws of tournaments.

Stefanos Tsitsipas’ sheer number of matches played is always a bit of a concern, he always tends to have the highest number in the field. Meanwhile, the most serve oriented players in the field are clearly Maxime Cressy, Tim van Rijthoven, and Hubert Hurkacz. If they do get broken in a set it seems unlikely that they could fight back.

Indoor Hard Court & Tiebreak Data

Taking into account the surface type in Rotterdam we are able to break down the players’ career performance on indoor hard courts on the ATP Tour. These records include qualifying rounds. As a result of indoor hard being a very quick surface, it was also relevant to look at how the players perform in tiebreaks and how often their sets indoors go into tiebreaks.

 

Most players in the field have played a decent amount of indoor hard tennis on the main tour.

Jannik Sinner just pips Medvedev for the best games won record when limiting the data to solely indoor tennis. However, Holger Rune, albeit on a smaller sample size due to his age, stands out in the indoor data. His serve really seems to be helped by these conditions and that has led him to the highest win rate, helped enormously by his Paris Masters victory late in 2022.

Meanwhile, it is surprising how poorly the biggest servers have faired with Hurkacz and Cressy actually having losing records. Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev are fairly average indoors with Felix Auger-Aliassime showing more in these conditions.

Tiebreaks

Tim van Rijthoven is the man to watch for tiebreaks this week, over a third of his sets end up this way indoors at the moment. A surprise name on the list of regular tiebreak players indoors is Alex De Minaur, one to watch out for as his odds may well be generous for tiebreaks here.

In terms of winning or losing tiebreaks Constant Lestienne has a truly remarkable record at this stage. Mikael Ymer the opposite. Alexander Zverev has tended to do well in them over his career whereas Andrey Rublev will be looking to improve his below 50% number.

ATP Rotterdam Draw

ATP Rotterdam Betting Tips

Andrey Rublev 1pt @ 15/2 with Bet365

The Russian has a serious Novak Djokovic problem, he doesn’t think that he can beat him, and neither does anybody else. The good news for Rublev here though is that there is no Djokovic in the draw.

The section of the draw that Rublev finds himself in has the other seed of Hubert Hurkacz who doesn’t have the best record on the ATP Tour and, as we saw above, indoors. The route to a semifinal place looks well within the Russian’s reach and he has got a very good recent history of winning titles.

Jannik Sinner 1pt @ 8/1 with Bet365

I couldn’t leave Sinner out of the staking plan this week despite him having to go back-to-back after his title run in Montpellier. Sinner strikes me as someone who can go two weeks on the spin and has the right attitude of wanting to dominate.

He was close to taking out Tsitsipas in Australia so there is no need to be concerned about the prospect of that matchup in the second round, a best of 3 match is always going to have that bit more of an element of luck about it which should favour the slight underdog in Sinner. Also, Sinner’s indoor and 12-month records stand up well to the Greek’s anyway, so there is little in it.

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