WTA Finals Cancun | Outright Betting Preview & Tips

The final event of the 2023 WTA Tour is the WTA Tour Finals. This year the tournament is back in Mexico, at the resort town of Cancun, to see who will be crowned as the WTA Tour Champion for this year.

This is the 52nd edition of the WTA Tour finals. As one can imagine, the champions list for the event is a who’s who of the best players of the last half-century.

Martina Navratilova holds the record for eight titles, Serena Williams and Steffi Graf have five, Chris Evert has four, and Kim Clijsters and Monica Seles have three each. However, interestingly, the last eight editions have all seen a different first-time champion. There are a few fairly unlikely winners as well with Dominika Cibulkova, Agnieszka Radwanska, and even last year’s winner Caroline Garcia were low seeds and unexpected winners.

Indeed, only two #1 seeds have gone all the way to the title in the last decade, Serena in 2014 and Ash Barty in 2019.

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WTA Finals Betting Tips

1pt Coco Gauff @ 7/1 at BetVictor

1.5pt Aryna Sabalenka to win Bacalar Group @ 7/4 at Bet365

1.5pt Iga Swiatek to win Chetumal Group @ 11/8 at Bet365

Event In Focus: WTA Finals

For the schedule and how the format works, check out this article. There are also profiles of all eight of the finalists here.

All eight players have been assessed statistically and historically to try and get a handle on how the event could pan out.

2023 Analysis

Unsurprisingly, the top seeds dominate the analysis of 2023. Aryna Sabalenka has been very consistent this year, her win percentage is excellent and she has the highest hold percentage in the field. Iga Swiatek has by far the highest break percentage in the field and also has the most wins, fewest defeats and the highest total game win percentage in the field.

In terms of the outsiders, Marketa Vondrousova has an impressive break percentage, albeit she has played a lower average ranking of player over the season. Ons Jabeur could struggle on serve, whereas Maria Sakkari hasn’t had a particularly successful seasons in win/loss terms.

Hard Court History & Form

As the event will be being played on a hard court it made sense to assess the field on this particular surface.

Swiatek again stands out, as she does on almost every metric. Jessica Pegula does particularly well on hard courts, especially on return, but her win percentage doesn’t necessarily match her competitiveness on the surface. Jabeur and Sakkari have almost identical records on the surface, which is incredible, but also they are two players who have built their careers up over time and that is indicated in this data.

All of the players actually come into this tournament in pretty decent form. No-one has lost more than three matches in their last ten, but no-one is on a ten-match or more winning streak either. It is difficult to divide the group on form, but Coco Gauff was the US Open champion and carried that momentum to Beijing, reaching the semi-finals, but losing to Iga Swiatek at that tournament.

Against the elite top ten, Elena Rybakina has an impressive record, winning more than she loses over her career and winning two-thirds against fellow top tenners in the season. This will be her debut in the year-end finals.

WTA Finals Draw

Bacalar Group

Aryna Sabalenka would’ve been pleased with her draw in the finals. The Belarussian has clear head-to-head record leads against all of the players in her group.

Maria Sakkari is an interesting wildcard in this group. The Greek sneaked into the draw as a result of Karolina Muchova’s withdrawal, but actually not only does Sakkari have a decent record against players in her group, but she has qualified from the group in the last two finals.

Chetumal Group

Swiatek has winning records over everyone in her group and should feel confident in progressing to the semi-finals.

Aside from her Swiatek problem, which she overcame in the US Open let us not forget, Coco Gauff has winning records over Jabeur and Vondrousova.

The Slovakian Wimbledon champion has not yet beaten Swiatek or Gauff, but she is a tricky customer who delivers when it matters so could be a dark horse to progress here.

WTA Finals Betting Tips

Coco Gauff 1pt @ 7/1 at BetVictor

So much evidence from the data points towards Iga Swiatek. However, the data has been strong with the Pole all season, and yet she hasn’t managed to convert that into the results that would be expected. She didn’t even reach the semi-finals of any Grand Slam outside of Roland-Garros this year, and won only one WTA1000 event as well. This points towards something else at play.

Whilst Gauff has won only 1 in 9 matches against Swiatek, that one was a huge match in Cincinnati in August, and that will give her great confidence that she can win when it matters. Also, it is possible she can win this without actually having to beat Swiatek anyway, coming 2nd in the group and Swiatek losing in the semi-finals is a realistic path.

Gauff is the premier hard court player from the back end of the WTA season, winning tournaments on the lead up to the US Open in Cincinnati and Washington. Her price is far too big for a player that has won three elite events in her last five, beating Swiatek and Sabalenka in the process.

Aryna Sabalenka to win Bacalar Group @ 7/4 at Bet365

It was highlighted in the analysis that Sabalenka has strong winning records against her opponents. She has become more reliable this season and comes into this as the top seed, instead of #7 last season. She reached the final last year so has gotten used to the tournament as well.

Iga Swiatek to win Chetumal Group @ 11/8 at Bet365

Swiatek won 3/3 in the groups last season, and, if she does have any kind of mental demons then they only ever show up in the bigger, knockout matches. She should be able to play her best tennis in the groups, she is in great form having won in Beijing before this, and she will want to make a statement from the start here.