Italian Open 2026 Betting Tips | Sinner Top Pick, Kostyuk Women’s Value

Tournament complete (17 May 2026): Our Sinner outright pick landed — Sinner beat Ruud 6-4, 6-4 to complete the Career Golden Masters. WTA: Svitolina won her third Rome title — Svitolina wins WTA Rome 2026. Coverage now moves to French Open 2026 (24 May – 7 June) — see our French Open betting tips.

Italian Open 2026 betting tips: Jannik Sinner is the overwhelming outright favourite at the Foro Italico as world No. 1, fresh from winning Madrid without dropping a set. With Carlos Alcaraz confirmed absent through wrist injury, Sinner faces no credible top-ranked rival. Below, our outright tips, value picks and key markets for both draws as the tournament moves through the R32 phase into R16 (12 May).

For the full tournament overview and contender breakdown, see our Italian Open 2026 preview. For the latest results and key R32 matchups, see our Italian Open R32 preview.

How Madrid Reshaped the Rome Betting Picture

Three storylines from the Madrid Open carry directly into Rome:

• Sinner is operating at a level no rival can match. Three consecutive titles in 2026 — Australian Open, Monte Carlo and Madrid — with his Madrid final a 6-1, 6-2 demolition of Zverev that produced the highest performance rating ever recorded on the LiveTennis system. He did not drop a set at Madrid and did not face a single break point in the semi-final or final.
• Alcaraz is out. The two-time defending Roland-Garros champion confirmed his withdrawal from both Rome and Roland-Garros with right wrist tendon inflammation and cartilage damage. Without Alcaraz, Sinner faces no credible rival at the top of the draw.
• Arthur Fils is the form player on clay. The 21-year-old Frenchman has won 12 of his last 13 clay matches (Barcelona title + Madrid semi-final) and arrives at Rome ranked a career-high No. 17. He is the most credible threat to Sinner outside Zverev.

Italian Open 2026 Men’s Outright Odds

Odds approximate at time of writing. The tournament is in R32 stage moving into R16 (12 May). Prices will tighten as top seeds advance.

Player	Approx Odds	Status
Jannik Sinner	4/6	Top seed; through R64
Alexander Zverev	8/1	Defending champion
Arthur Fils	14/1	Madrid SF + Barcelona winner
Novak Djokovic	22/1	Six-time Rome champion
Daniil Medvedev	25/1	Through R64
Casper Ruud	33/1	Through to R32 (def. Svajda)
Jiri Lehecka	40/1	Through to R32 (def. Struff)
Rafael Jódar	50/1	Through to R32 — Madrid QF run continues
Carlos Alcaraz	N/A	Confirmed withdrawal — wrist injury

18+ | Please Gamble Responsibly | Odds approximate at time of writing, check Bet365 for latest prices

Men’s Pick: Sinner to Win Rome

Jannik Sinner is the clear pick. The world No. 1 has won three Masters 1000 titles in 2026 (Indian Wells, Miami, Madrid) plus Monte Carlo, and his Madrid performance produced the highest rating ever recorded on the LiveTennis system. With Alcaraz absent, the only credible challenger in the draw is defending champion Alexander Zverev — and Sinner beat him 6-1, 6-2 in the Madrid final two weeks ago.

Sinner has nothing to defend at Rome (he was suspended in 2025) so every round is bonus rankings points. The only meaningful counter is the historical pattern: he has never gone beyond the Rome quarter-finals as a top player, and home crowd pressure at the Foro Italico has historically been a factor. But his current level overrides those concerns — the price reflects that.

Tip: Sinner outright — check Bet365 for current odds

Each-Way: Zverev at 8/1

Alexander Zverev is the defending Rome champion and the only player to beat Sinner on clay in 2026 (Monte Carlo semi-final). He arrives off the back of a Madrid final run where he was beaten 1-6, 2-6 by Sinner but otherwise looked back to his best clay-court level. At 8/1, he offers the strongest each-way value in the men’s draw — the second-best player at the tournament and the only one with a realistic route to the final without meeting Sinner before the SF.

Tip: Zverev each-way at 8/1

Value Dark Horse: Fils at 14/1

Arthur Fils is the value pick of the draw. The Frenchman has the form of his career on clay — 12 wins in his last 13 matches across Barcelona (title) and Madrid (semi-final). He receives a Rome seeding for the first time and arrives ranked at a career-high No. 17. His powerful baseline game and improved second serve make him a credible deep-run threat. If he avoids Sinner before the semi-finals — a real possibility depending on the draw — he is genuinely live for the final.

Tip: Fils each-way at 14/1

Outsider Watch: Jódar at 50/1

Rafael Jódar has continued his remarkable clay swing in Rome — through to R32 in his Foro Italico debut after defeating Nuno Borges. The 19-year-old Spanish wildcard reached the Madrid quarter-finals on debut and is yet to be intimidated by the big stage. His draw section could feature Djokovic in the R16 — a match for the ages if it happens. Worth a very small each-way punt at 50/1 given his momentum.

Italian Open 2026 Women’s Tips

Player	Approx Odds	Status
Iga Swiatek	9/4	Defending Rome champion; 4x RG winner
Aryna Sabalenka	4/1	World No. 1; Madrid QF exit
Marta Kostyuk	9/1	Madrid champion — 12-0 on clay in 2026
Mirra Andreeva	10/1	Madrid finalist; career-high No. 7
Coco Gauff	10/1	Madrid R16 exit
Elena Rybakina	14/1	Madrid R16 exit

Women’s Pick: Swiatek to Defend

Iga Swiatek is the clear pick. The defending Rome champion is also the four-time Roland-Garros winner and the most consistent clay-court WTA player of the modern era. Her Madrid R32 retirement was illness-related, not form-related — she had beaten Andreeva at Stuttgart earlier in the clay season before falling ill in Madrid. Rome’s slower conditions and lower altitude suit her game more than any other clay event, and she returns to her favourite hunting ground with serious intent.

Tip: Swiatek outright at 9/4

Each-Way: Kostyuk at 9/1

Marta Kostyuk is the standout value pick. The Ukrainian arrives in Rome as the Madrid Open champion and the form player on the WTA clay circuit — 12-0 on clay in 2026 and a career-high world No. 15 after Madrid. Her heavy-topspin game is ideally suited to clay, and at 9/1 she represents excellent each-way value. The Madrid title proved she can beat the very best on the surface; Rome is her chance to confirm she is a genuine Roland-Garros contender.

Tip: Kostyuk each-way at 9/1

Women’s Dark Horse: Andreeva at 10/1

Mirra Andreeva, 19, reached the Madrid final and beat Sabalenka in the quarter-finals — climbing to a career-high world No. 7. At 10/1 she sits at the same odds as defending Roland-Garros champion Coco Gauff but with much stronger clay form. The young Russian has previously beaten Swiatek (Stuttgart) and Sabalenka (Madrid QF) this clay season; she is genuinely live for the title.

Our Italian Open 2026 Tips Summary

Bet	Selection	Odds	Type
Men’s outright	Jannik Sinner	4/6	Outright
Men’s each-way	Alexander Zverev	8/1	Each-way
Men’s value	Arthur Fils	14/1	Each-way
Women’s outright	Iga Swiatek	9/4	Outright
Women’s each-way	Marta Kostyuk	9/1	Each-way

Place your Italian Open bets with Bet365

18+ | Please Gamble Responsibly | Odds approximate at time of writing, check Bet365 for latest prices

Key Markets Beyond the Outright

Sinner vs Zverev Final Odds

Bookmakers price a Sinner vs Zverev final around 7/4. After their Madrid rematch ended 6-1, 6-2 to Sinner, a Rome repeat is the most likely men’s final. Both sit at the top of their half of the draw and have been the two best clay-court men’s players of 2026.

British Interest

Cameron Norrie arrives in Rome as the British No. 1 at world No. 19, the highest British ranking since his 2023 peak. His R64 match is a meaningful one — a deep run here would lock him into a Roland-Garros seeding. Jack Draper at No. 28 is also in the main draw.

FAQs

Who is the favourite for the Italian Open 2026?

Jannik Sinner is the overwhelming favourite as world No. 1, fresh from winning Madrid without dropping a set. With Carlos Alcaraz confirmed absent through wrist injury, Sinner faces no credible rival.

Is Carlos Alcaraz playing the Italian Open 2026?

No. Alcaraz has officially confirmed his withdrawal from Rome and Roland-Garros with a right wrist injury.

Who is the defending Rome champion?

Alexander Zverev won the 2025 Italian Open. He arrives as the second favourite after reaching the 2026 Madrid final.

Is Alex de Minaur still in the Italian Open?

No. De Minaur was beaten in R64 by Italian wildcard Matteo Arnaldi — the biggest seed upset of the early rounds.

How can I watch the Italian Open 2026 in the UK?

Sky Sports Tennis has the UK broadcast rights to the Italian Open. Bet365 live streaming is also available to account holders.