Madrid Open 2026 Betting Tips | Outright Picks, Odds & Value Markets

Pre-tournament betting analysis: The 2026 Mutua Madrid Open offers a betting slate transformed by Sinner’s Monte Carlo title win and Alcaraz’s loss of the world No 1 ranking. Jannik Sinner chases a maiden Madrid title to add to his recent Monte Carlo crown. Aryna Sabalenka is the obvious women’s favourite. Below, our outright tips, value picks and key markets ahead of the second clay Masters of the season.

For tournament background, contender profiles and how to watch, see our Madrid Open 2026 preview. For the full Monte Carlo recap that shaped the rankings race, see our Sinner wins Monte Carlo report.

Madrid Open 2026 Outright Odds (Men’s)

18+ | Please Gamble Responsibly | Odds approximate at time of writing, check Bet365 for latest prices

Men’s Pick: Sinner to Win Madrid

Update (26 April): Alcaraz has withdrawn from the tournament through a right wrist injury. Our original tip has been superseded by events. Sinner is now the clear favourite — he won his R32 against Elmer Møller 6-4, 7-6 and looks in commanding form. With Shelton (4), De Minaur (5) and Rublev (9) also eliminated in R64, his path to the title has opened up considerably. See our Madrid Open R32 preview for all matchups and predictions.

Sinner is chasing a fifth consecutive Masters 1000 title — which would be historic. His clay-court game has improved significantly this season, evidenced by his Monte Carlo title. At the odds currently available, he represents the standout selection.

Updated tip: Sinner to win Madrid — check Bet365 for current odds

Each-Way: Zverev at 10/1

Zverev is genuine each-way value at 10/1. The German’s serve is more effective at altitude than at any other clay event, and his two Madrid titles (2018, 2021) confirm his suitability. After a strong Monte Carlo run that ended in the semi-finals against Sinner, his form has clearly improved. The path through the draw is the question — but at 10/1 each-way (typically 1/4 odds for top 4), he offers a strong reward profile.

Tip: Zverev each-way at 10/1

Women’s Outright Odds

Women’s Pick: Sabalenka to Defend

The most reliable bet of the women’s tournament is Sabalenka at Madrid. Her three titles, 19-3 record at the venue across the last three years, and a power game perfectly suited to the altitude make her the worthy favourite at 5/2. Swiatek at 7/2 has the talent to win but Sabalenka has won their last three meetings on clay.

Tip: Sabalenka outright at 5/2

Each-Way Value: Rybakina at 10/1

Rybakina at 10/1 each-way is the standout women’s value. Her serve and flat ball-striking suit Madrid better than any other clay venue, and she has reached the semi-finals multiple times. With 1/4 odds for top 4, she offers a strong each-way return.

Key Markets Beyond the Outright

Alcaraz vs Sinner Final Odds

Bookmakers price an Alcaraz vs Sinner final around 5/2. After their Monte Carlo final the appetite for the rematch is high, but Madrid’s 96-player draw and the increased pressure on both makes a direct repeat less certain than at smaller events. The 5/2 price is fair rather than value.

British Interest

Jack Draper at 25/1 reaches a different stratosphere of difficulty than at Monte Carlo, but the Briton was the 2025 finalist and his clay form is improving. Worth a small each-way punt for British bettors. Emma Raducanu in the women’s draw faces a tougher challenge — clay is her weakest surface and she has limited Madrid history.

Our Madrid 2026 Tips Summary

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18+ | Please Gamble Responsibly | Odds approximate at time of writing, check Bet365 for latest prices

FAQs

Who is the favourite for the Madrid Open 2026?

Jannik Sinner is the clear men’s favourite after Alcaraz’s withdrawal and the elimination of Shelton, De Minaur and Rublev in R64. Aryna Sabalenka leads the women’s market after Swiatek’s retirement through illness. Check Bet365 for current prices.

Is Sinner playing Madrid 2026?

Yes. Jannik Sinner is the world No 1 after winning Monte Carlo and is in the Madrid field. He has reached the final twice without winning the title.

What are the best Madrid betting markets?

Outright and each-way are the most popular. With Madrid’s 96-player draw, “to reach the final” markets offer better value than at smaller events. First-set betting and game handicaps are also reliable on clay.