Madrid Open 2026 R32 Preview | Draw Blown Wide Open by Shock Exits

The 2026 Mutua Madrid Open has been blown wide open. Seeds four, five and nine are all out, a 19-year-old Spanish wildcard has become the tournament’s breakout hero, and Jannik Sinner has moved smoothly into the last 16 as the last credible favourite standing. With Carlos Alcaraz already absent through injury, the R32 that begins on Monday 27 April could produce further chaos — and for UK fans, Cameron Norrie has a genuine chance to go deep.

The round of 64 delivered shock after shock across both the ATP and WTA draws. A virus sweeping through the locker room has added to the unpredictability, claiming Iga Swiatek and forcing multiple withdrawals on the women’s side. Below: a full breakdown of the R32 matchups, the key results so far, and our predictions for the matches that matter most to UK audiences.

Post-final update: Sinner went on to beat Alexander Zverev 6-1, 6-2 in the Madrid Open final. Read our winner report.

Madrid Open 2026: Seeds Already Out (ATP R64)

The scale of the damage to the seedings is remarkable. The top half of the draw — Sinner’s quarter — has already lost De Minaur (5), Rublev (9) and Tommy Paul (15). The bottom half lost Shelton (4), Humbert (30), Shapovalov (31) and Bublik (8). Three of the top nine seeds in this draw are already on the plane home.

Rafael Jódar: The Home Hero

The story of the tournament so far is 19-year-old wildcard Rafael Jódar. The Madrid-born teenager — ranked outside the top 200 — demolished fifth seed Alex de Minaur 6-3, 6-1 in the round of 64, producing one of the most dominant wildcard displays seen at a Masters 1000 event. He then followed it up by beating 27th seed João Fonseca 6-2, 6-4 in the R32 to advance to the last 16.

Jódar’s story has been building since the Barcelona Open, where he reached the semi-finals as a wildcard before losing to eventual champion Arthur Fils. He was described at the time as the fifth Spanish teenager in Open Era history to reach the Barcelona SF. In Madrid, on home clay, playing in front of a crowd that treats him as a local hero, Jódar has turned that Barcelona momentum into something even bigger. His R16 opponent is likely to be a ranked opponent — possibly Arthur Rinderknech (22) — but on current form, fear no one.

Madrid Open 2026 R32: Key ATP Matchups

Alexander Zverev (2) vs. Terence Atmane

This is the most fascinating match of the R32. Atmane is the Frenchman who overcame severe cramps to beat 30th seed Humbert in a pair of tiebreaks on Day 4 — at one point barely able to serve or move, yet somehow winning from 2-5 down in the second-set tiebreak. Zverev is the two-time Madrid champion, the second seed, and Sinner’s primary rival for the title in the absence of Alcaraz.

Zverev won his R64 opener against Navone 6-1, 3-6, 6-3, dropping a set in what was an unconvincing performance — he admitted to “losing focus completely” in the second set. Atmane, who is playing the tennis of his life, could cause problems if Zverev is not switched on from the first point. Zverev should win, but this is not a formality.

Prediction: Zverev in three sets.

Daniil Medvedev (7) vs. Nicolai Budkov Kjaer (Q)

Budkov Kjaer produced one of the great qualifer performances of the week, thrashing Shapovalov 6-2, 6-1 in just 53 minutes. The Norwegian qualifier now faces Medvedev, who came through against Marozsan 6-2, 6-7(3), 6-4 in a match that tested his clay-court patience. Medvedev on clay is always something of a wild card — his game is best suited to hard courts, and his results on the red stuff have been inconsistent.

Prediction: Medvedev in three sets, but Kjaer will make him work.

Casper Ruud (12) vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (20)

The defending champion meets a player who loves this surface and this city. Ruud was brutal in his R64 win over Munar (6-0, 6-1), signalling that the Norwegian clay specialist has hit form at the right time. Davidovich Fokina, who beat home wildcard Carreño Busta 6-3, 6-3, is the passionate crowd favourite but needs to hold his game together tactically. Ruud’s title pedigree and consistency make him the favourite, though the home atmosphere will push Davidovich Fokina hard.

Prediction: Ruud in three sets.

Felix Auger-Aliassime (3) vs. Alexander Blockx (Q)

FAA, the third seed, opens his R32 campaign against Belgian qualifier Blockx — who came from a set down to upset 28th seed Nakashima in the previous round. The 20-year-old Blockx is an unfamiliar name to most, but has shown he belongs at this level. FAA won his opener against Gaubas 6-3, 6-4 and should have enough quality to advance, but this is precisely the kind of match where seeds can trip over themselves on clay.

Prediction: FAA in two sets.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Daniel Merida (Q)

Tsitsipas produced the best result of his 2026 season so far by beating eighth seed Bublik 6-2, 7-5 — described as “easily one of his best wins of the year.” The Greek then faces qualifier Merida, who upset 26th seed Moutet. Tsitsipas on clay in front of a noisy crowd tends to find his best tennis, and this is a match he should win comfortably.

Prediction: Tsitsipas in straight sets.

Cameron Norrie: UK Interest in R32

Cameron Norrie is the British flag carrier at the Caja Magica. The 30-year-old left-hander, seeded 19, came through a tough R64 against Tomas Machac 6-2, 6-7(8), 7-6(5) in a match that went deep into the final-set tiebreak. Norrie has been in strong form on the clay swing and reached the Barcelona quarter-finals before the tournament began.

His R32 opponent is Thiago Agustin Tirante — the Argentine who stunned 15th seed Tommy Paul 7-5, 6-4 in the previous round. Tirante is an awkward clay-court opponent who plays heavy topspin and has the ability to extend rallies to uncomfortable lengths. Norrie’s defensive game and counter-punching style are well-suited to this type of match, though Tirante will bring confidence after beating a higher-ranked player.

A Norrie win sets up a last-16 clash potentially with Sinner — but the Brit will need to beat Tirante first. From a UK perspective, this is one of the most compelling R32 matches of the day.

Prediction: Norrie in three sets.

Jannik Sinner: On Track for R16

Jannik Sinner won his R32 opener against qualifier Elmer Møller 6-4, 7-6, advancing to the last 16 without excessive drama. The world No. 1 was tested in the tiebreak but his level throughout was high, and he is now looking like the player most likely to win this title. He came to Madrid having won Monte Carlo and the Australian Open, and a fifth consecutive Masters 1000 title would be historic.

Sinner’s likely R16 opponent — based on the draw — could be either Norrie, Tirante or the remarkable Jódar, depending on results in the R32. Whichever opponent he faces, Sinner enters as a heavy favourite.

WTA: Illness Crisis and Swiatek’s Shock Exit

The women’s draw has been hit hard by illness. Iga Swiatek, the three-time Roland Garros champion and No. 3 seed, retired against Ann Li (31) when trailing 6-7(4), 6-2, 0-3 in the R32. Swiatek confirmed she had been suffering from a virus for two days, with “zero energy, zero stability” — adding that “something is going around in the locker room.” Madison Keys and Clara Tauson also withdrew through illness before their matches.

Despite the illness, Coco Gauff (4) fought through to the R16, beating Sorana Cirstea 4-6, 7-5, 6-1 after a shaky start. Aryna Sabalenka (1) was untroubled in her R32 win over Jaqueline Cristian 6-1, 6-4 and is now the heavy favourite for the women’s title.

With Swiatek and Paolini (8) both out, the path is clearest for Sabalenka — who is the defending champion and has been the dominant player on the WTA Tour in 2026. Mirra Andreeva (9) is also through and could be a dangerous outsider in the second half of the draw.

Madrid Open 2026 R32 Predictions

With the draw opened up dramatically, Sinner is now comfortably the favourite for the men’s title. Zverev remains the most credible challenger in the bottom half — but faces Atmane in what could be a banana-skin first test. Ruud, as defending champion, has the clay credentials to go deep. For value, Tsitsipas is finding form at the right time.

On the women’s side, Sabalenka looks very hard to beat. Gauff, Andreeva and — quietly — Ann Li after her stunning win over Swiatek are worth watching. For our full outright picks and current odds, see our Madrid Open 2026 betting tips.

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How to Watch Madrid Open R32 Live

The simplest way to watch the Madrid Open live is through the Bet365 live streaming service. Bet365 offers live coverage of ATP and WTA Masters events to account holders with a funded account or who have placed a bet in the last 24 hours.

To watch the Madrid Open live on Bet365:

1. Go to Bet365.com via this special link
2. Register an account, make a first deposit and bet £10 to receive £30 in Bet Credits*
3. Once registered, go to the sports homepage and select Tennis from the left-hand menu
4. Select the play icon next to any Madrid Open match in progress and the stream window will appear

UK viewers can also watch on Sky Sports Tennis and stream via NOW TV, which holds the UK rights for Madrid. For the full schedule and broadcast guide, see our Madrid Open 2026 live stream guide.

*New customers only. Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365. Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. 18+ BeGambleAware.org

FAQs

Who are the favourites for the Madrid Open 2026?

Jannik Sinner is the clear favourite after winning Monte Carlo and the Australian Open. Alexander Zverev is his most likely challenger in the men’s draw. On the women’s side, defending champion Aryna Sabalenka is the standout favourite after Swiatek’s retirement through illness.

Is Cameron Norrie still in the Madrid Open 2026?

Yes. Cameron Norrie (seeded 19) beat Tomas Machac in the R64 and faces Thiago Agustin Tirante in the R32 on Monday 27 April. A win would set up a potential last-16 clash with Sinner.

Why did Iga Swiatek retire from Madrid?

Swiatek retired from her R32 match against Ann Li, trailing 6-7(4), 6-2, 0-3, due to illness. She confirmed she had been suffering from a virus for two days and that “something is going around in the locker room.” Multiple other players withdrew from the WTA draw through illness.

Who is Rafael Jódar?

Rafael Jódar is a 19-year-old Spanish wildcard ranked outside the top 200. He beat fifth seed Alex de Minaur 6-3, 6-1 and then 27th seed João Fonseca 6-2, 6-4 to reach the Madrid R16. He previously reached the Barcelona Open semi-finals in April 2026, making him one of the most exciting young Spanish prospects since Alcaraz.

How can I watch the Madrid Open 2026 in the UK?

The Madrid Open is available on Sky Sports Tennis and via NOW TV in the UK. You can also stream live matches via Bet365 with a funded account or a bet placed in the last 24 hours. See our full live stream guide for more details.