Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Head-to-Head

Power against precision. Sabalenka hits through the court harder than anyone in the women's game, and Pegula's answer is depth, timing and a refusal to give away cheap errors. When Pegula wins, it is because Sabalenka's margins have gone. The 10-4 reflects how often that trade favours the bigger hitter over three sets. Pegula's wins have tended to come when she can extend rallies past the point where Sabalenka's first strike decides them, which is how she took the Berlin semi-final in 2026 and then won the decider there without losing a game. The US Open record is the most useful part of the history. Sabalenka has won all three meetings there: the 2024 final 7-5, 7-5, the 2025 semi-final 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 after losing the opening set, and the 2026 semi-final 7-5, 6-2.

Sabalenka leads 10-4 across 14 tour-level meetings and 4-0 at the Grand Slams, and that second number carries the most weight: all three of their US Open meetings have gone her way, the 2024 final and the semi-finals in 2025 and 2026. Against that, Pegula has won two of the last four. Seven of the fourteen have come on outdoor hard court, where Sabalenka leads 5-2, so the long record and the recent record point in different directions.