Mariano Navone

Navone is a classic modern Argentine grinder: he stands deep, hits with heavy topspin off both wings and wins matches by refusing to miss and by outlasting opponents physically. His best surface by some distance is clay, where his win rate is far higher than on hard courts, and the Djokovic win was built on exactly that template, absorbing pace for four hours until the physical balance tipped. The serve is functional rather than a weapon, so he needs long matches to impose the pattern he wants.

Navone is priced as a clay-court player and is usually a bigger price on hard courts than his level warrants in matches that are likely to go long. The New York win over Djokovic will shorten him, probably too far, for a second round against a bigger hitter. The reliable read has been the format: he is a materially better proposition over five sets than three, because the longer the match runs the more his conditioning matters. Odds are approximate at time of writing.