Taylor Fritz at Wimbledon 2026
Stockholm Open

Stockholm Open 2026 Betting Tips: Quarter-Final Picks and Outright Value

The Stockholm Open is the ATP’s only event in the week between the Paris Masters and the ATP Finals, and by Wednesday evening six of the eight quarter-finalists were known. Taylor Fritz, the top seed, beat Cameron Norrie 7-5, 6-3 to reach the quarter-finals, Lorenzo Musetti and Ugo Humbert set up a meeting in the top half, and Casper Ruud, the defending champion, plays his first match of the week on Wednesday evening. These are our picks for the title, written on Wednesday 11 November with the quarter-finals still to come.

For the draw, the seeds and the history of the tournament, see our Stockholm Open 2026 preview and the Stockholm Open hub.

Our Stockholm Open Picks

Taylor Fritz to win

Taylor Fritz is the top seed and the best server left in the draw. Over the past 52 weeks he has the third-highest serve rating on the ATP Tour, behind only Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev, and he averages 14.1 aces a match, according to our serve leaders page. Those numbers count for even more on a quick indoor court. He also has a point to prove: he held two match points against Carlos Alcaraz in the Paris quarter-finals and lost, which cost him a place at the ATP Finals. He beat Norrie in straight sets. His quarter-final is against the winner of Holger Rune and Miomir Kecmanović, then Musetti or Humbert in the semi-finals.

Casper Ruud each-way

Casper Ruud won Stockholm in 2025, beating Ugo Humbert 6-2, 6-3 in the final to become the first Norwegian champion, and he arrives from a run to the Paris semi-finals, where he lost 6-4, 6-4 to Alcaraz. This is the last event of his season, and the bottom half of the draw is the weaker one: after his opener against the qualifier Aleksandr Shevchenko on Wednesday evening, his quarter-final is against Thiago Agustín Tirante, who went through when the No. 5 seed Tomás Martín Etcheverry withdrew, and his semi-final would be against Alex Michelsen or Alejandro Tabilo. Reaching the final is the bet, and that is why we would play him each-way rather than to win.

Holger Rune, the outsider

Holger Rune won this title in 2022 and is unseeded this year. He beat the No. 8 seed Zizou Bergs 6-3, 6-4 in the first round and plays Kecmanović in the last 16 on Wednesday evening, with Fritz waiting in the quarter-finals. He has the hardest route of our three picks, which is why he is the outsider, but he has won here before and has the shots to beat anyone on this court.

The Quarter-Finals

Match Route there
Taylor Fritz (1) v Holger Rune or Miomir Kecmanović Fritz had a first-round bye and beat Cameron Norrie 7-5, 6-3
Lorenzo Musetti (3) v Ugo Humbert (7) Musetti beat Toby Samuel 6-1, 6-4; Humbert beat Adolfo Daniel Vallejo and Borna Gojo 6-2, 6-4
Alex Michelsen (6) v Alejandro Tabilo (4) Michelsen beat Juan Manuel Cerúndolo 6-3, 6-2; Tabilo beat Lorenzo Sonego 7-6(2), 6-7(7), 7-5
Thiago Agustín Tirante v Casper Ruud (2) or Aleksandr Shevchenko Tirante went through when Etcheverry withdrew

Musetti or Humbert?

The best quarter-final on paper is in the top half. Lorenzo Musetti, the No. 3 seed, won the Lyon title in October and beat the world No. 1 Alexander Zverev in Paris. Ugo Humbert was the runner-up here a year ago and has not dropped a set this week. Musetti is the more accomplished player, but Humbert’s left-handed serve is a good fit for this court, and we would not want to back either of them against Fritz in the semi-finals.

No Britons Left

Britain had two players in the draw, and both are out. Cameron Norrie beat James Duckworth 7-5, 6-0 before losing to Fritz, and the qualifier Toby Samuel beat the Swedish wildcard Leo Borg 6-3, 6-2 before losing to Musetti.

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FAQ

Stockholm Open Betting FAQs

Who is the favourite to win the Stockholm Open 2026?
Taylor Fritz, the top seed, who is the highest-ranked player left in the draw. Casper Ruud, the defending champion and No. 2 seed, and Lorenzo Musetti, the No. 3 seed, are the other leading names.
When is the Stockholm Open 2026 final?
The tournament runs from 8 to 14 November 2026 at the Royal Tennis Hall in Stockholm, and the final is on Saturday 14 November.
Who won the Stockholm Open in 2025?
Casper Ruud, who beat Ugo Humbert 6-2, 6-3 in the final to become the first Norwegian to win the title.
Are there any British players left in Stockholm?
No. Cameron Norrie lost to Taylor Fritz in the second round and the qualifier Toby Samuel lost to Lorenzo Musetti.

More Coverage

Read our Stockholm Open preview and follow the Stockholm Open hub. For the week after, see our ATP Finals betting tips, and every event we follow is in the tournaments index.