With Novak Djokovic on the verge of more history, including a potential calendar Grand Slam, can anyone in the draw…
With Novak Djokovic on the verge of more history, including a potential calendar Grand Slam, can anyone in the draw stop him at Wimbledon 2023?
With the retirement of Roger Federer and absence of Rafael Nadal, only Andy Murray rivals Djokovic as a former Wimbledon champion in the draw.
Carlos Alcaraz is playing his third Wimbledon main draw, and having become Queen’s champion last week in his first tour-level grass tournament, the superb Spaniard is probably the main threat to Djokovic.
The Championships welcome back the Russian and Belarusian players in 2023 after their exclusion last year. Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev, in particular, will be looking to take advantage of that change.
Last year’s finalist Nick Kyrgios and 2021 finalist Matteo Berrettini are both in the draw, but neither player is fully fit and are unlikely to be able to go deep into this year’s tournament.
The top sixteen seeds, and a few interesting outsiders, have been analysed. The factors taken into account in this analysis are:
- 2023 ATP Tour Record
- Career Grass Court Record
- Recent form
- Recent form vs Top 10 ranked players
- The last three Wimbledon tournaments
Wimbledon 2023 Men’s Betting Tips
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Event In Focus: Wimbledon Men’s Draw
Obviously this is the culmination of the short grass court swing on the ATP Tour. There is a lot of information that can be useful to us when assessing the players for this event. However, the fact that this is a 5-set, seven-round event, does put a different kind of strain on the players, and that will be taken into account in the final analysis.
Novak Djokovic may not be the current official world number one, Alcaraz returned to that spot after his Queen’s triumph, but the Serbian is the man to beat according to the bookmakers. The Grass Court ELO rankings (as compiled by Tennis Abstract, explanation here) also agree that the 23-time Grand Slam champion is the best grass court player in the world going into this fortnight.
The official rankings also have Frances Tiafoe in the top ten ahead of a Grand Slam for the first time, while Andy Murray is back into the top 40 but missed out on a seeding for The Championships.
There are some shocks in the Grass ELO ratings, mainly as a result of so little grass court tennis being played in the calendar. Recent Halle champion Alexander Bublik is ranked as the 4th highest rated grass court player in the world, Andy Murray is at No3 despite that recent defeat to Alex De Minaur, who is ranked No12.
Inexperienced grass court players Ben Shelton, Francisco Cerundolo, and Lorenzo Musetti haven’t really had time to make much of an impression yet. However, Casper Ruud has had the time, just seemingly not the desire or the ability to make an impact on the grass.
2023 ATP Tour Form
Across the current year it is Carlos Alcaraz that has the most impressive record. The Spaniard has the highest win percentage and also the best games win/loss percentage across the season. This is built on a superb return game, ranked as the best in the world.
Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev are also up near that 120 rating for games won across the season. Djokovic has employed a much lighter schedule than his rivals in 2023, which should mean that he is fresher for the bigger events. This also means that it is Medvedev who goes into Wimbledon with the highest number of match wins on tour this year.
Jannik Sinner has dropped off somewhat in recent weeks, but stands out amongst the other players on his games won percentage. This suggests that Sinner is dominant in many matches, but perhaps loses the close ones. This is in equal measures an indicator of great potential but a concern around mentality at the same time.
There should be concerns around the form of Felix Auger Aliassime, Hubert Hurkacz, and Borna Coric in the higher seeds. Also, Alexander Bublik, Andy Murray, and Ben Shelton have had really inconsistent seasons on tour.
Career Grass Court Analysis
There are two standouts across their careers on grass in the draw, no surprise that these players are Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray.
Looking beyond those legends though, Matteo Berrettini has an incredible win percentage and Carlos Alcaraz has also made a great start to his grass career.
Alex De Minaur is a surprising standout in the grass court data, his games won rating is pretty much world class on the surface. Andrey Rublev and Daniil Medvedev are also perhaps a touch underrated on the surface when assessing their body of work on the whole.
Coric, Musetti, Holger Rune, and Casper Ruud all have losing records on grass and poor games won percentages.
Form & Recent Wimbledon Record
This is where Novak Djokovic and his great history shine through. His record at Wimbledon is incredible, he was won the last four titles in a row, seven in total. His last completed loss in The Championships was to Sam Querrey on Court One in 2016. His last defeat on Centre Court was to Andy Murray in the 2013 final, Murray’s first Wimbledon crown. It is an incredible record.
In terms of challengers, it is really in this section that it becomes most apparent how lacking the draw is in terms of talented players that have a strong Wimbledon record. Only ONE other Top 16 seed has even a semifinal to their name in the last three tournaments, that is Cameron Norrie from last year. There is nobody else on the whole grid that has more than one quarterfinal run in the last three Wimbledons.
There are three players coming into the tournament with 9 wins in their last 10 matches: Djokovic, Alcaraz, and Murray. Murray achieved all of those wins on the Challenger Tour, though. Ben Shelton is in very poor form on the other end of the scale.
Against the best in the world, Djokovic stands out a mile. He has won nine out of his last ten encounters with the other best players in the world; only Nick Kyrgios gets anywhere near that. On the opposite side, Alexander Zverev’s record is horrific, and Frances Tiafoe and Matteo Berrettini will also have concerns over their recent records against the Top 10.
Wimbledon 2023 Men’s Draw
Wimbledon, like all Grand Slams, has a 32-seed, 128-player draw.
Wimbledon 2023 Betting Tips
In essence, it is very difficult to see how Novak Djokovic doesn’t win here. The draw certainly hasn’t made things more difficult for him as he gets Casper Ruud in his half, as well as avoiding some of the fresh contenders that perhaps could trouble him, unless Nick Kyrgios is fully fit. However, there is no fun in tipping up an 8/13 favourite for a two-week long tournament. Plenty of things could happen in that time and I would prefer to seek alternatives in the opposite half of the draw at this moment in time.
This tip is persuaded by four main factors. His placement in the draw is pretty decent, in the top half, away from Djokovic. Korda’s performances at Queen’s were very good indeed, until he came to Carlos Alcaraz. Unfortunately, he will have to clear him again here to reach the final, but he could turn things around over five sets.
Korda himself believes that he can be a factor at Wimbledon, he literally stated as much to the press during Queen’s, and that is important to finding a real contender who doesn’t have that mental baggage in the big events. Finally, he also has decent course form. He couldn’t play last year, but as a 20-year-old he reached the fourth round and was so close to the quarter-finals.
The main concern is his body and whether it can hold up for two weeks of best-of-five tennis.
The Queen’s finalist is in Alcaraz’s section of the draw and he would have to face him in the fourth round, but, as we saw at Queen’s, the Australian is in great shape and can push the Spaniard very hard. De Minaur’s great weapon is his fitness and speed, if he can get Alcaraz to go deep then he has a real shot at him.
It is also clear in the data that De Minaur does well on grass. Whilst he may not have had the super deep run at Wimbledon that would be more convincing, he potentially has a better draw here to assert himself on the tournament.
Regardless, De Minaur looks confident, and he has said that he feels inspired by his girlfriend, Katie Boulter, and her recent maiden WTA Tour win.
Tiafoe looks very underestimated at these prices. His game has been coming on slowly but surely and his Grand Slam results are moving in the right direction too.
Now ranked in the Top 10, and a grass court title holder already this season in Stuttgart, the American looks to be being disrespected by the bookmakers here. He is also on the right side of the draw and his grass court data is decent enough to not discourage the bet.
Shelton is very much a newbie, and his ATP Tour data since his breakthrough in Australia has been poor. But it is his first season on tour so some slack can be afforded to that. He has been based in London now for three weeks and he will have had time to accalimatise to the grass and the conditions. He has all the skills required to be brilliant at Wimbledon, he just lacks the experience.
If he can learn quickly then he is massively underestimated with at least one bookmaker here.