Alcaraz v Lehečka: Japan Open Final Preview, Head-to-Head and Prediction

Carlos Alcaraz and Jiří Lehečka meet in the Japan Open final on Tuesday 6 October at Ariake Tennis Forest Park in Tokyo. Alcaraz, the top seed, is defending the title he won last year, when he beat Taylor Fritz 6-4, 6-4. Lehečka is unseeded and beat Valentin Vacherot, the No. 8 seed and defending Shanghai champion, 6-4, 6-2 in 68 minutes in the semi-final.

Match Details

Head-to-Head

Alcaraz leads 3-1. Lehečka’s win came in the quarter-finals of the 2025 Doha ATP 500, on hard court, 6-3, 3-6, 6-4. Alcaraz won the other three: the round of 16 at Queen’s Club in 2023, the 2025 Queen’s Club final, where he came from a set down, and the 2025 US Open quarter-final in straight sets, 6-4, 6-2, 6-4. Lehečka has taken a set off him in two of the four matches.

How They Got Here

Alcaraz has dropped a set in two of his four matches. He beat Alex Michelsen 7-6(1), 4-6, 6-1, Matteo Arnaldi 7-6(6), 6-1, and Denis Shapovalov 7-6(3), 2-1 when Shapovalov retired from the quarter-final. The semi-final against Jaume Munar was the scare: Alcaraz served for the first set at 5-3, lost 16 points in a row and the set 7-5, then won the next two 6-3, 6-1 in two and a half hours. He said afterwards that he keeps struggling in first sets.

Lehečka’s week has been easier on the clock. He beat Zizou Bergs 6-3, 6-7(3), 6-3 and Ugo Humbert 5-7, 6-4, 6-4, then took the qualifier Adolfo Daniel Vallejo apart 6-1, 6-1 and Vacherot 6-4, 6-2. It is his second ATP final of 2026, after Miami.

What Decides It

Alcaraz is the clear favourite, and the 3-1 record says the same. The risk for him is the start. A slow first set against Lehečka’s serve is the one way the match gets away from him, and Lehečka has shown he can hold his nerve in a decider, which he did in Doha. Over a long match Alcaraz’s return should be the difference.

Our view is Alcaraz to win, with Lehečka the one to back if you want a set: he has taken at least one set off Alcaraz in half of their meetings, and Alcaraz has started slowly in this event. For more, see our Japan Open betting tips.

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What Is at Stake

The winner takes 500 ranking points. Alcaraz is fourth on our Race to Turin table as of 28 September, and a title is worth 500 points on top of that. It would be his first title since returning from injury. This is his first tour-level final since Monte-Carlo in April: he missed four and a half months with a right wrist injury and returned at the US Open. Both players are in the Shanghai Masters next, which starts on Wednesday. Alcaraz is the No. 2 seed there and Lehečka the No. 22 seed, and each has a first-round bye. Our Shanghai Masters preview has the full draw.

How to Watch in the UK

The final is live on Sky Sports and NOW in the UK, with a 10am start. Our how to watch the Japan Open guide has the full broadcast details.

More Coverage

See our Japan Open preview, the prize money breakdown and the list of past winners. Full coverage sits on our Japan Open hub, every event we follow is in the tournaments index, and the dates are in the 2026 tennis calendar. The other Tuesday final, Djokovic v de Minaur in Beijing, has its own preview.