US Open 2026 Predictions: Who Wins in New York

Our forecast for the 2026 US Open, running from 30 August to 13 September at Flushing Meadows. This is the editorial call on who reaches the second week and who lifts the trophies. If you are after markets, prices and each-way angles, those are in our US Open betting tips instead.

Men’s Singles: Our Pick Is Out — Alcaraz Inherits It

We had Jannik Sinner as the winner, and that pick is void: he withdrew on 21 August with the right knee problem that had already cost him Cincinnati. It is his first missed Grand Slam since 2019. We flagged the fitness caveat when we made the pick and said we were backing the player rather than the preparation; the preparation won that argument.

The title now goes to Carlos Alcaraz or it goes to someone who has never won it. Alcaraz has confirmed his return after four months out with a wrist injury and defends the title he won here last year, but he came in without a hard-court match and has since reached the third round. Alexander Zverev becomes top seed and has a maiden Grand Slam behind him. The draw, made on 27 August, settled the shape of it, and the first round has already changed it. Novak Djokovic, drawn in Alcaraz’s half and the man we expected him to meet in the semi-finals, went out on the opening day, beaten in five sets by Mariano Navone. Alcaraz’s quarter has thinned out again: Cincinnati champion Arthur Fils went out to Stefanos Tsitsipas on Day 2, leaving eighth seed Ben Shelton as the main obstacle, with Tommy Paul confirmed as the last-16 opponent and Tsitsipas meeting Shelton in the other fourth-round tie. The top half is the kinder one. Zverev heads it, and it has thinned out badly: Félix Auger-Aliassime lost to Karen Khachanov and Alex de Minaur to Botic van de Zandschulp in the second round, and fifth seed Flavio Cobolli has since gone out to Alexander Blockx in the third round, leaving Zverev as the only top-10 seed in his half. He has one major, won at Roland-Garros. Our call is Zverev. He has the easier route, a maiden Grand Slam already banked at Roland-Garros and a Wimbledon final behind him, and we are not backing a defending champion with no hard-court match since April to come through Shelton and a resurgent Tsitsipas to reach the final. Djokovic’s exit has improved Alcaraz’s side of the draw and narrowed the gap, but it does not change the call.

Alcaraz beat Sinner in last year’s final and has not played since April, skipping the National Bank Open and Cincinnati while managing the wrist. The defending champion starts cold, and there is now no Sinner rematch to build the fortnight around. If the wrist holds and the timing returns quickly he is the obvious favourite; if it does not, the draw opens up considerably for Zverev, who has proved he can win a major.

Our earlier projected semi-finals had Sinner in one of them, so they no longer stand. The draw was made on 27 August, with Zverev as top seed and Alcaraz seeded behind him.

Women’s Singles: Sabalenka, But Closer Than Last Year

We make Aryna Sabalenka the winner for a third year running, though her build-up has since raised a question: she was beaten in the Cincinnati last 16 by Sara Bejlek, ranked outside the top 50, having needed six match points to survive her opening match. New York is the major that fits her game most cleanly, and she has already shown she can win it when she is not playing at her best. No woman has won three consecutive US Open titles since Serena Williams from 2012 to 2014, which tells you both how hard it is and how well she has been playing here.

The credible opposition is Coco Gauff, who has won this tournament and who does not need to out-hit Sabalenka to beat her, and Iga Świątek, whose return game travels to any surface. Elena Rybakina is the one who can win a straight-sets shootout.

The draw has been unkind to the bottom half. Rybakina and Świątek share a quarter for the second event running, so one of them goes out in the last eight again, and Gauff is in the other bottom-half quarter with fifth seed Mirra Andreeva and Amanda Anisimova. Sabalenka, by contrast, has the friendliest section of the four, with Linda Nosková her highest-seeded quarter-final threat. Our projected semi-finals: Sabalenka v Pegula in the top half, and Gauff v Rybakina in the bottom.

The British Contingent

The British picture is thinner than it was. Emma Raducanu, the 2021 champion here, has withdrawn with a grade-four stress fracture in her right leg and will miss the tournament entirely. Jack Draper missed the cut for direct entry into the main draw, entered qualifying, then withdrew before playing with a long-standing left arm injury. That leaves nine Britons in the main draw. Cameron Norrie, the only British seed, went out in the first round to Luca Van Assche, but Katie Boulter and qualifier Toby Samuel both came through on the opening day. Britain’s tournament is now over. Harriet Dart lost 6-2, 6-2 to Marie Bouzková and Francesca Jones was beaten 6-4, 6-4 by Iva Jovic in the second round, following Harry Wendelken, Arthur Fery, Jan Choinski, Jacob Fearnley, Toby Samuel and Boulter out of the draw.

What Would Change Our Minds

Two things. First, fitness news. Cincinnati was supposed to be the read on both men and it is not: Sinner and Alcaraz are each missing it, so the next real evidence on either is their opening match in New York. Second, the draw ceremony on 27 August. A 15-day schedule with a top-heavy quarter can end a favourite’s tournament before the second week, and neither of our picks is immune to that.

Predict the Draw Yourself

That is our call. The full 128-player draw is loaded into our free bracket predictor exactly as it was made on 27 August, so you can make yours. Pick every match to the final, or lock the calls you agree with and simulate the rest to see how often our picks actually survive the draw.

Predict the men’s draw (ATP) →  ·  Predict the women’s draw (WTA) →

More Coverage

For markets and each-way angles see our US Open betting tips. For the schedule and how to watch the finals, see the US Open final page, and the full list of champions. Full coverage sits on our US Open hub · Sinner withdraws, every event we follow is in the tournaments index, and the dates are in the 2026 tennis calendar.