US Open
The US Open is the last major of the year and the one that most often rewards the player in form rather than the player with the record. Two weeks of hard-court tennis in New York heat, with a 15-day schedule since 2025 that gives the top seeds an extra day of recovery early on, tends to produce a finalist nobody had priced up in August. Below are our outright angles for both draws, and the reasoning behind them.
Men: The Favourite Has Withdrawn
Jannik Sinner has withdrawn. The world No. 1 pulled out on 21 August with the right knee problem that had already forced him out of Cincinnati — his first missed Grand Slam since 2019 — so every ante-post price on him is void and the men’s market has been rewritten. He was the 2024 champion and last year’s runner-up. Alexander Zverev moves up to top seed.
Carlos Alcaraz has confirmed he will play, and with Sinner gone he is the story of the men’s draw. He has not competed since April, having skipped the National Bank Open and Cincinnati while managing the wrist injury that cost him Roland-Garros and Wimbledon, so he defends the title without a single hard-court match. A defending champion returning from four months out is exactly the profile that gets over-backed on reputation and under-backed on evidence — and with the field’s other headline name absent, that reputational pull is now stronger, not weaker.
Men: Where the Each-Way Value Sits
Zverev has now reached a Wimbledon final and won Roland-Garros, which removes the old objection that he could not close out a major. New York has historically been his best hard-court slam. He is the obvious each-way play if you want a price rather than a favourite, though his Cincinnati tune-up ended in the last 16 against Tommy Paul from match point up.
Below that tier, the home players are worth a look for place terms rather than the outright. Ben Shelton has the strongest case of the group on paper: he defended his National Bank Open title in Montreal in August, the first man to go back-to-back there in a decade. The caveat arrived immediately afterwards, when he lost his opening match in Cincinnati to qualifier Jaime Faria, so the deep hard-court form line is one tournament old rather than current. Taylor Fritz has the same serve-first profile, and both get a crowd that genuinely lifts them in the night sessions. Learner Tien is the speculative one: young, awkward to play, and priced accordingly.
Women: Sabalenka Chasing History
Aryna Sabalenka tops the rankings and is going for a third consecutive US Open title, which no woman has managed since Serena Williams won three in a row from 2012 to 2014. Flushing Meadows suits her better than any other major: the conditions reward first-strike tennis, and the court speed means she is not asked to construct points she does not want to construct.
The case against is simply that the third one is the hardest, and the chasing pack is deeper than it was. Coco Gauff has won here before and does not need to out-hit Sabalenka to beat her. Iga Świątek remains the best returner in the draw. Elena Rybakina is the one player who can match Sabalenka’s power without needing a good day, and she came into New York with a question of her own: Sabalenka was beaten in the Cincinnati last 16 by Sara Bejlek, while Rybakina retired from her quarter-final against Świątek at 1-4 down, unable to bear weight on her left heel. Her fitness is the open variable in the women’s market.
How We Would Play It
One outright and one each-way, rather than three outrights. The men’s draw has a clear favourite and a genuinely uncertain second favourite, which usually argues for taking the each-way price further down rather than opposing the top of the market. The women’s draw is the opposite: the favourite has the strongest surface case in the field, so the value is in backing her properly rather than hedging into names that need everything to go right.
The draw was made on 27 August, and the first round has already redrawn it. Alcaraz and Djokovic came out in the same half, but Djokovic is already gone, beaten in five sets by Mariano Navone on the opening day. That clears the biggest obstacle between the defending champion and the final, though a last-16 tie with Tommy Paul and then Ben Shelton or Stefanos Tsitsipas still stand in his way. Arthur Fils, the other danger in that quarter, went out to Stefanos Tsitsipas in the first round. Zverev carries the other half now: Auger-Aliassime went out to Karen Khachanov in the second round, de Minaur was beaten in straight sets by Botic van de Zandschulp, and fifth seed Flavio Cobolli lost to Alexander Blockx in the third. In the women’s draw Rybakina and Świątek were drawn together again, so one is gone by the quarter-finals, and Gauff shares a quarter with Mirra Andreeva. Sabalenka has the cleanest run of the top four. Compare markets across the best tennis betting sites and check the current tennis betting offers before you stake. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
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Predict the Draw Yourself
The draw is what moves these markets, and you can work through it yourself. The full 128-player bracket is loaded into our free predictor exactly as it was made on 27 August. Lock the results you are confident in, simulate the rest at whatever upset level you think New York deserves, and see how often your each-way pick reaches the second week.
Predict the men’s draw (ATP) → · Predict the women’s draw (WTA) →
FAQ
US Open 2026 Betting FAQs
Who is the favourite for the US Open 2026?
Not Jannik Sinner — the world No. 1 withdrew on 21 August with a right knee injury, his first missed Grand Slam since 2019. Alexander Zverev becomes top seed and defending champion Carlos Alcaraz has confirmed his return from a four-month wrist injury, so the market now forms around those two. Novak Djokovic, a four-time champion here, went out in the first round to Mariano Navone, and 23rd seed Andrey Rublev, 16th seed Brandon Nakashima, third seed Félix Auger-Aliassime, sixth seed Alex de Minaur, 13th seed Lorenzo Musetti, 15th seed Alexander Bublik and 18th seed Jiří Lehečka have all followed him out. The seeds have fallen at an unusual rate on both sides of the draw. Aryna Sabalenka is favourite in the women’s draw, going for a third straight US Open, though she lost in the Cincinnati last 16.
Is Carlos Alcaraz fit for the US Open?
Unclear. He is the defending champion, but he has not played since April and withdrew from both the National Bank Open and Cincinnati while managing the wrist injury that ruled him out of Roland-Garros and Wimbledon. He is expected in New York, but he will get there with no hard-court match play, so there is no form line to check before backing him.
When should I bet on US Open outrights?
The main draw was made on 27 August, three days before play started on 30 August. Outright prices moved on it, as they usually do: a favourite who lands in the harder half is worth less than the early price suggested, which is exactly what happened to Carlos Alcaraz here.
Where can I bet on the US Open?
Compare prices and markets across our best tennis betting sites, and check the latest tennis betting offers first. 18+, please gamble responsibly.
More Coverage
Read our US Open 2026 predictions for the round-by-round forecast without the prices, check the US Open prize money breakdown, or see the full list of US Open champions. Full coverage sits on our US Open hub · Sinner withdraws, every event we follow is in the tournaments index, and the dates are in the 2026 tennis calendar.