US Open 2026 Betting Tips: Outright Picks for Both Draws

The US Open is the last major of the year and the one that most often rewards the player in form rather than the player with the record. Two weeks of hard-court tennis in New York heat, with a 15-day schedule since 2025 that gives the top seeds an extra day of recovery early on, tends to produce a finalist nobody had priced up in August. Below are our outright angles for both draws, and the reasoning behind them.

Men: Sinner Is the Price to Beat

Jannik Sinner arrives as world No. 1 and as the man who won this title in 2024 before losing it to Carlos Alcaraz in last year’s final. He also comes in off a Wimbledon title, beating Alexander Zverev in the final. On a medium-fast hard court, against a field where his two most credible rivals both carry a question, he is a justified favourite. The problem for backers is that the price reflects all of that.

The more interesting question is Alcaraz. He is entered as the No. 3 seed and he is the defending champion, but he has not played a major since the wrist injury that cost him Roland-Garros and Wimbledon. He has targeted the North American hard-court swing as his return, which means Cincinnati is effectively his tune-up for this. A defending champion coming back from four months out is exactly the profile that gets over-backed on reputation and under-backed on evidence. Watch what he does in Cincinnati before committing either way.

Men: Where the Each-Way Value Sits

Zverev has now reached a Wimbledon final and won Roland-Garros, which removes the old objection that he could not close out a major. New York has historically been his best hard-court slam. He is the obvious each-way play if you want a price rather than a favourite.

Below that tier, the home players are worth a look for place terms rather than the outright. Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton both have the serve to shorten points in the heat, and both get a crowd that genuinely lifts them in the night sessions. Learner Tien is the speculative one: young, awkward to play, and priced accordingly.

Women: Sabalenka Chasing History

Aryna Sabalenka tops the rankings and is going for a third consecutive US Open title, which no woman has managed since Serena Williams won three in a row from 2012 to 2014. Flushing Meadows suits her better than any other major: the conditions reward first-strike tennis, and the court speed means she is not asked to construct points she does not want to construct.

The case against is simply that the third one is the hardest, and the chasing pack is deeper than it was. Coco Gauff has won here before and does not need to out-hit Sabalenka to beat her. Iga Swiatek remains the best returner in the draw. Elena Rybakina is the one player who can match Sabalenka’s power without needing a good day.

How We Would Play It

One outright and one each-way, rather than three outrights. The men’s draw has a clear favourite and a genuinely uncertain second favourite, which usually argues for taking the each-way price further down rather than opposing the top of the market. The women’s draw is the opposite: the favourite has the strongest surface case in the field, so the value is in backing her properly rather than hedging into names that need everything to go right.

Prices move a lot between the entry list and the draw ceremony on 27 August. If you are betting outrights, the draw itself is worth waiting for. Compare markets across the best tennis betting sites and check the current tennis betting offers before you stake. 18+, please gamble responsibly.

More Coverage

Read our US Open 2026 predictions for the round-by-round forecast without the prices, check the US Open prize money breakdown, or see the full list of US Open champions. Full coverage sits on our US Open hub, every event we follow is in the tournaments index, and the dates are in the 2026 tennis calendar.