Japan Open
Carlos Alcaraz defends his Japan Open title as the top seed, and the draw gives him a manageable route to the semi-finals. Here are our outright picks for Tokyo, where the each-way value sits and the first-round matches worth a look.
Result, 6 October: our pick to win landed. Carlos Alcaraz defended the title, beating Jiří Lehečka 7-6(4), 6-4 in the final. Neither each-way pick reached the quarter-finals. Our final preview and the list of Japan Open winners have the detail, and the analysis below was written when the draw came out.
Alcaraz Is the Favourite for a Reason
Alcaraz won the Australian Open this year, beat Taylor Fritz in last year’s Tokyo final and saved two match points to beat him again at the Laver Cup. His year was interrupted by a wrist injury that cost him Roland-Garros and Wimbledon, and he lost a five-set US Open quarter-final to Ben Shelton, but he is the best player in this draw.
His quarter holds Tommy Paul, who arrives after withdrawing from the Laver Cup with an elbow injury, and his first match is against Alex Michelsen.
Our Outright Picks
Carlos Alcaraz
Update, 6 October: this pick won. Alcaraz beat Jiří Lehečka 7-6(4), 6-4 in the final. The reasoning we gave before the tournament is left below.
Our pick to win. He is the defending champion and the top seed, and he has won each of his last three meetings with Fritz, including last year’s Tokyo final.
Frances Tiafoe, each-way
Update: this pick has gone. Tiafoe beat Kei Nishikori 6-4, 6-4, then lost 6-3, 7-5 to the qualifier Arthur Fils in the second round. The reasoning we gave before the tournament is left below.
The No. 2 seed reached the US Open semi-finals and was runner-up in Tokyo in 2022. He is in the bottom half, away from Alcaraz, so a run to the final pays on the each-way terms. His first match is against the wildcard Kei Nishikori, who is playing Tokyo for the final time and will have the crowd behind him. Win that, and he meets Arthur Fils, the 2024 champion, who beat Luca Van Assche in the first round.
Rafael Jódar, each-way
Update: this pick has gone. Jódar lost 6-1, 6-3 to the qualifier Adolfo Daniel Vallejo in the first round. The reasoning we gave before the tournament is left below.
The No. 4 seed opens against the qualifier Adolfo Daniel Vallejo, sits in the same bottom half as Tiafoe and has a Turin place to play for: he is ninth on the Race to Turin. Brandon Nakashima and Ugo Humbert, the 2024 runner-up, are the main obstacles in his quarter. He lost 6-1, 6-3 to the qualifier Adolfo Daniel Vallejo in the first round.
Why Not Fritz?
Fritz has the best Tokyo record in the field after Alcaraz, champion in 2022 and runner-up in 2025. The problem is the draw: he is in Alcaraz’s half, seeded to meet him in the semi-finals, so an each-way bet on Fritz only pays if he beats the man who has won their last three meetings.
The Qualifiers to Watch
Arthur Fils, the 2024 champion, and Stefanos Tsitsipas both came through qualifying. Fils, a top-15 player who has won this title before, landed in Tiafoe’s quarter and has already beaten Luca Van Assche 6-3, 6-2, so the Tiafoe each-way bet now has to go through him. Tsitsipas plays Tomás Martín Etcheverry in the same quarter.
Players to Oppose
Paul and Holger Rune are both coming back from injury: Paul from the elbow problem that took him out of the Laver Cup, and Rune from the left Achilles injury that kept him out of the US Open. Neither is one to back for the title until they have matches behind them. Paul lost 6-1, 6-2 to Alejandro Tabilo on the opening day.
First-Round Matches Worth a Look
- Arthur Fery v Jaime Faria: Musetti withdrew with a finger injury, so Fery meets the lucky loser instead, a match he will expect to win.
- Frances Tiafoe (2) v Kei Nishikori: the two-time champion, playing Tokyo for the final time, on a wildcard against the No. 2 seed.
- Brandon Nakashima (5) v Ugo Humbert: the 2024 runner-up is a dangerous floater for a seed.
- Jiří Lehečka v Zizou Bergs: a close first-round match, with the winner likely to face Nakashima or Humbert.
How We Would Play It
Alcaraz to win outright, with smaller each-way stakes on Tiafoe and Jódar from the bottom half. Check how many places the each-way terms pay before you stake, because the terms for smaller events vary between bookmakers.
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FAQ
Japan Open Betting FAQs
Who is the favourite for the Japan Open 2026?
Carlos Alcaraz, the defending champion and top seed, was our pick to win in Tokyo, and he won the title, beating Jiří Lehečka 7-6(4), 6-4 in the final.
Who won the Japan Open in 2025?
Carlos Alcaraz, who beat Taylor Fritz 6-4, 6-4 in the final.
Is Arthur Fils in the Japan Open draw?
Yes. Fils, the 2024 champion, came through qualifying with wins over Martin Damm and Kamil Majchrzak, then beat Luca Van Assche 6-3, 6-2 in the first round.
Where can I bet on the Japan Open?
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More Coverage
Read our Japan Open 2026 preview for the full draw, schedule and UK start times, the prize money breakdown and the list of Japan Open winners. For Beijing in the same week, see our ATP China Open betting tips. Full coverage sits on our Japan Open hub, and every event we follow is in the tournaments index and the 2026 tennis calendar. For the title match, see our Alcaraz v Lehečka final preview.