Cincinnati Masters
Elena Rybakina was two matches from the world No. 1 ranking and could not finish the first set. The second seed retired at 1-4 against Iga Świątek in the Cincinnati Open quarter-finals, unable to put weight on her left heel, and with it went the best chance of her career to reach the top of the game. Flavio Cobolli, meanwhile, came from a set down to beat Tommy Paul and reach a first Masters 1000 semi-final at a new career-high of world No. 6.
Earlier rounds are in our round of 16 report, round of 32 report and round of 64 report. Outright angles are on the betting tips page.
Rybakina’s Injury Costs Her the No. 1 Ranking
The mathematics were simple and cruel. With Aryna Sabalenka beaten in the last 16, reaching the Cincinnati final would have taken Elena Rybakina to world No. 1 for the first time in her career. Instead she stopped mid-rally at 1-4 down, unable to bear weight on her left heel, took a brief look at it with her trainer and retired after one further point. Television pictures showed strapping around the Achilles area.
It is the second serious injury of the fortnight in the women’s draw after Elina Svitolina withdrew with an ankle problem, and it lands nine days before the US Open. Rybakina had been the form pick in this draw and our own each-way selection; the ranking she was chasing is now Sabalenka’s to keep by default.
Iga Świątek advances to the semi-finals without having lost a set all week, which is the least satisfying way for a defending champion to reach the last four and the most efficient.
Cobolli’s Chocolate Comeback
Flavio Cobolli is into the first Masters 1000 semi-final of his career after beating Tommy Paul 2-6, 6-3, 6-4. He lost the opening set, changed the match after a chocolate break at the change of ends — his own explanation — and closed it out in one hour 58 minutes.
It takes him to 31-17 for the season and a new career high of world No. 6. He is also, after the exits of Alexander Zverev, Félix Auger-Aliassime and Novak Djokovic, comfortably the highest-ranked man left in the draw. For a player who arrived here having never reached a hard-court Masters quarter-final, the week has rearranged his season.
Completed Quarter-Finals
| Through | Beat | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Flavio Cobolli (7) | Tommy Paul (18) | 2-6, 6-3, 6-4 |
| Arthur Fils (21) | Thiago Agustín Tirante | 6-3, 6-2 |
| Iga Świątek (7) | Elena Rybakina (2) | 4-1 ret. |
| Jessica Pegula (3) | Amanda Anisimova (9) | 6-4, 2-6, 7-6(4) |
Pegula’s win was the best match of the day: an all-American quarter-final settled in a third-set tie-break after Anisimova had levelled. Fils, by contrast, needed just over an hour to end the run of Tirante, the qualifier who had knocked out Novak Djokovic in the first round and 14th seed Jakub Menšík in the last 16.
The Other Four Quarter-Finals
Four ties completed the last eight, and the men’s pair was a piece of American history: the first time since 1995 that four American men reached the Cincinnati quarter-finals. Full results are in our semi-final preview.
| Quarter-final | The case |
|---|---|
| Taylor Fritz (6) v Brandon Nakashima (27) | Nakashima won 7-6(9), 4-6, 6-3 |
| Lorenzo Musetti (10) v Frances Tiafoe (17) | Tiafoe won 7-6(2), 7-5 |
| Coco Gauff (4) v Marta Kostyuk (10) | Gauff won 6-2, 6-2 |
| Madison Keys (20) v Sara Bejlek | Bejlek won 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(5) — a third seed beaten |
How the Semi-Finals Finished
All four semi-finals went with the lower seed or the outsider. Arthur Fils beat Flavio Cobolli 6-3, 6-4 and Frances Tiafoe beat Brandon Nakashima 7-5, 6-3, so the men’s title goes to a first-time Masters 1000 champion. Jessica Pegula ended Iga Świątek‘s defence 7-5, 4-6, 6-4 and Coco Gauff beat Sara Bejlek 6-4, 6-1, setting up the first all-American final here since 1970. Full detail is in the semi-final report and the finals preview.
Where the Value Sits Now
Our women’s each-way pick was Rybakina, and it is settled by injury rather than by tennis — the least useful way to lose a bet, and a genuine worry for her US Open. Świątek is now the shortest price in the draw and has earned it without playing a full week of tennis, which cuts both ways: fresh legs, but fewer competitive sets before New York.
On the men’s side Cobolli is favourite on ranking and on form for the first time in his career, and the market has moved accordingly. The each-way case is Fils, who has spent the least time on court of anyone in the men’s last four. Full reasoning is on the Cincinnati Open betting tips page.
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More Cincinnati Open Coverage
Full cluster: Cincinnati Open hub · Winners · Round of 64 · Round of 32 · Round of 16 · Preview · Betting tips · What to watch · Prize money · Past champions · How to watch
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Every event we cover is in the tournaments index, and the dates are in the 2026 tennis calendar.