Cincinnati Masters
The Cincinnati Open round of 32 is played across Monday 17 and Tuesday 18 August, and it is the first round of this tournament where the draw looks nothing like the seeding said it would. Twelve seeds are already gone, including Novak Djokovic and Ben Shelton, and seven unseeded players who beat one are still in. Britain’s Arthur Fery has the hardest assignment of the round against Alex de Minaur, and there are five seed-versus-seed ties in the men’s draw alone.
Full round-of-64 results are in our Cincinnati Open results report. Outright angles are on the betting tips page, broadcast details in the how to watch guide.
Fery Against de Minaur Is the British Tie
Arthur Fery is the only British player left in either singles draw, and the 32nd seed has drawn fifth seed Alex de Minaur in what is a first career meeting. On paper it is a mismatch: de Minaur has won more than 200 tour-level matches on hard courts, Fery has a handful.
The case for Fery is the season he has just had. He qualified for the Australian Open, then reached the Wimbledon semi-finals, beating Flavio Cobolli and Grigor Dimitrov before Alexander Zverev stopped him. He is now inside the world’s top 40 and he came through a two-and-a-half-hour round-of-64 match against James Duckworth, so the legs are proven.
The case against is that de Minaur is exactly the wrong opponent for a player who wins by grinding. The Australian is the better mover and the better returner, and he does not give away the free points a bigger hitter would.
Men’s Round of 32: The Full Draw
Five ties put two seeds against each other, and the Zverev quarter is the one that has stayed intact.
| Match | Note |
|---|---|
| Alexander Zverev (1) v Terence Atmane | Top seed, and the title favourite now |
| Juan Manuel Cerúndolo v Félix Auger-Aliassime (2) | Cerúndolo beat Rinderknech in 3½ hours |
| Brandon Nakashima (27) v Daniil Medvedev (4) | Seed v seed; Medvedev won here in 2019 |
| Arthur Fery (32) v Alex de Minaur (5) | Seed v seed; the last British hope |
| Taylor Fritz (6) v Daniel Mérida Aguilar | Fritz is the highest seed left in his quarter |
| Alexandre Blockx (28) v Flavio Cobolli (7) | Seed v seed |
| Rafael Jódar (12) v Alejandro Tabilo (22) | Seed v seed; Jódar saved match point in the last round |
| Learner Tien (16) v Frances Tiafoe (17) | Seed v seed; Tien reached the Montreal semis |
| Michael Zheng v Lorenzo Musetti (10) | Zheng knocked out Humbert and Marozsán |
| Andrey Rublev (13) v Nuno Borges | Borges beat Francisco Cerúndolo |
| Rinky Hijikata v Jakub Menšík (14) | Menšík came through a deciding-set tie-break |
| Tommy Paul (18) v Alejandro Vallejo | Paul is unseeded territory’s biggest obstacle |
| João Fonseca (23) v Christopher O’Connell | O’Connell advanced when Ruud retired |
| Jaime Faria v Adam Walton | Both beat a seed; one reaches the last 16 |
| Thiago Agustín Tirante v Martín Landaluce | Djokovic’s conqueror, against a fellow qualifier |
The Match That Decides the Bottom Half
Jaime Faria against Adam Walton is the least glamorous tie of the round and the most consequential. Faria beat Ben Shelton, Walton beat 29th seed Ignacio Buse, and the winner lands in a section that has already lost its top seeds. Neither man has been past the last 16 of a Masters 1000. One of them will be.
The same logic applies to Tirante against Landaluce. Two qualifiers, one place in the round of 16, in a quarter that was supposed to belong to Djokovic.
Women’s Round of 32: The Full Draw
The women’s draw lost only five seeds in the previous round and the top four are all still in.
| Match | Note |
|---|---|
| Aryna Sabalenka (1) v Xiyu Wang | Sabalenka needed six match points last round |
| Magdalena Fręch v Elena Rybakina (2) | Rybakina is the each-way pick in this draw |
| Emma Navarro (25) v Jessica Pegula (3) | Seed v seed, all-American |
| Coco Gauff (4) v Ann Li (28) | Seed v seed; Gauff came from a set down |
| Janice Tjen (32) v Mirra Andreeva (5) | Seed v seed; Andreeva dropped one game |
| Linda Nosková (6) v Clara Tauson (27) | Seed v seed; Nosková beat Boulter |
| Iga Świątek (7) v Maria Sakkari (29) | Seed v seed; the defending champion |
| Xinyu Wang v Elina Svitolina (8) | Wang knocked out Vekić |
| Alexandra Eala (17) v Amanda Anisimova (9) | Seed v seed |
| Marta Kostyuk (10) v Sloane Stephens | Stephens beat 24th seed Potapova |
| Diana Shnaider (14) v Maja Chwalińska (19) | Seed v seed |
| Sorana Cîrstea (15) v Anna Kalinskaya (18) | Seed v seed |
| Sara Bejlek v Ekaterina Alexandrova (16) | Bejlek knocked out Krejčíková |
| Kateřina Siniaková (33) v Madison Keys (20) | Seed v seed; Siniaková replaced Osaka |
| Marie Bouzková (22) v Iva Jovic (13) | Seed v seed |
| Diane Parry v Loïs Boisson | All-French; both beat a seed to get here |
Where the Value Sits
The men’s outright market has moved hard towards Zverev and that is the least interesting bet on the board. The better shape is each-way on a seed who has inherited a thinned-out section: Rafael Jódar and João Fonseca both sit in territory that has lost its highest seeds, and Learner Tien arrives with Montreal semi-final form and a retrieval game that drags bigger hitters into long matches in August humidity.
In the women’s draw Elena Rybakina remains the each-way pick. Her serve is the most valuable shot in the draw on a fast hard court, and she is in the same quarter as the defending champion, which means she is priced as though she has to beat Świątek to win the title. That is the bet: the quarter is hard, the rest of the route is not.
On Fery against de Minaur, the handicap and set markets are the sensible way in rather than the outright win. He took a set off nobody’s expectations at Wimbledon and lasted two and a half hours in the previous round, so a competitive first set is the realistic ask.
Full reasoning and our standing outright selections are on the Cincinnati Open betting tips page.
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