Shanghai Masters 2026 Betting Tips: Outright Picks and Value

Shanghai 2025 was won by a qualifier ranked No. 204, which is as good a reminder as any that a 96-player Masters 1000 can go anywhere. The 2026 draw was made on 5 October, and it puts the top two seeds in opposite halves. Alexander Zverev heads the top half and Carlos Alcaraz the bottom, so they cannot meet before the final on 18 October.

Result, 18 October: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina won the title, beating Rafael Jódar 1-6, 7-6(5), 6-4 in the final after knocking out the top seed Alexander Zverev 5-7, 6-4, 6-3 in the semi-finals. It was his first Masters 1000 title, and none of our three picks reached the quarter-finals. Our report on the final and the full results have the detail, and the analysis below was written when the draw came out on 5 October.

Our Shanghai Masters Picks

Carlos Alcaraz to win

Update, 13 October: this pick has gone. Alcaraz lost 7-5, 7-6(4) to Zizou Bergs in the third round. The reasoning we gave before the tournament is left below.

The Australian Open champion won the Tokyo title again on 6 October, beating Jiří Lehečka 7-6(4), 6-4, and his half of the draw is kinder than Zverev’s. After a bye he beat Juan Manuel Cerúndolo 6-3, 6-3 in the second round and plays Zizou Bergs, who beat Ignacio Buse (32) 6-0, 6-3, in the third, with Valentin Vacherot or Tommy Paul in the last 16 and Daniil Medvedev or Taylor Fritz in the quarter-finals. He would not have to face Zverev until the final. The bye means his first match in Shanghai is in the second round. The one concern is workload: Tokyo was only his second tournament back from a four-and-a-half-month wrist injury.

Novak Djokovic, each-way

Update, 10 October: this pick has gone. Djokovic lost 6-4, 6-3 to Hubert Hurkacz in the second round, the first time Hurkacz had beaten him in nine meetings (see our Djokovic v Hurkacz head-to-head). The reasoning we gave before the tournament is left below.

Djokovic is the record four-time Shanghai champion and has not lost a match in Beijing in his career: he is 34-0 there after winning a seventh title on 6 October, when de Minaur retired injured in the final. He reached the Shanghai semi-finals last year. The case against is the schedule. He is 39, he played the Beijing final on 6 October, and his Shanghai opener is against Hubert Hurkacz or James Duckworth, who retired injured from his own Beijing semi-final. On seeding he would need to beat Lorenzo Musetti, Frances Tiafoe, Ben Shelton and Zverev to reach the final, which is why we would play him each-way rather than to win.

Jiří Lehečka, the outsider

Update, 13 October: this pick has gone. Lehečka lost 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-4 to Rafael Jódar in the third round. The reasoning we gave before the tournament is left below.

Jiří Lehečka is the No. 22 seed and reached the Tokyo final, beating Zizou Bergs, Ugo Humbert, Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 6-1, 6-1 and Valentin Vacherot 6-4, 6-2 before losing to Alcaraz 7-6(4), 6-4. His quarter is the most open in the draw. Rafael Jódar (12) is seeded to meet him in the third round and Arthur Fils (8) in the last 16, while the top seed in that quarter, Félix Auger-Aliassime, lost his first match in Beijing. For a player at a bigger price, a run to the semi-finals is realistic.

The Zverev Question

Zverev has won two Grand Slams this year and leads the Race to Turin, so he will be near the top of every outright market. He lost his Beijing quarter-final to Djokovic from a set up, and his quarter is not straightforward: Flavio Cobolli (6), Alex de Minaur (9) and Andrey Rublev (23) are all in it, and Djokovic, who was seeded to be waiting in the semi-finals, is out. At a short price we would rather have Alcaraz from the easier half.

Players to Oppose

Auger-Aliassime (4) and Cobolli (6) both lost their first match in Beijing, Auger-Aliassime 6-3, 6-3 to Karen Khachanov and Cobolli 6-3, 6-2 to Roman Safiullin. Both have byes and decent openers in Shanghai, but neither arrives in form, and we would not back either of them for the title.

First-Round Matches Worth a Look

• Cameron Norrie v Dalibor Svrčina: Denis Shapovalov, Norrie’s original opponent, withdrew with a right hip injury. Svrčina came through qualifying, beating Billy Harris from a set down. The winner plays Tomás Martín Etcheverry (28).
• Hubert Hurkacz v James Duckworth: Hurkacz, the 2023 champion, beat Learner Tien and Karen Khachanov in Beijing but retired injured from his semi-final against de Minaur, so his fitness is the question. Hurkacz won, then beat Djokovic 6-4, 6-3 in the second round.
• Arthur Fery v Marin Čilić: Fery won 7-6(2), 6-1 and lost 7-6(6), 6-7(5), 7-6(2) to Khachanov (26) in the second round.
• Holger Rune v Daniel Altmaier: Altmaier won 1-6, 7-6(5), 6-4 and lost 6-3, 7-6(6) to Shelton in the second round.
• Matteo Berrettini v Aleksandar Kovacevic: Berrettini won 6-7(3), 6-1, 6-4 and meets Brandon Nakashima (16).

The Defending Champion

Vacherot defends 1,000 ranking points from his 2025 title. He reached the Tokyo semi-finals, where Lehečka beat him 6-4, 6-2, beat Sebastián Báez 6-4, 7-6(5) in the second round and plays Tommy Paul (15) in the third, with Alcaraz or Bergs in the last 16. Getting past both would be another remarkable week.

Compare prices across our best tennis betting sites and check the current tennis betting offers before staking. 18+, please gamble responsibly.

More Coverage

Read our Shanghai Masters preview for the full draw. Full coverage sits on our Shanghai Masters hub, every event we follow is in the tournaments index, and the dates are in the 2026 tennis calendar. The finals before the draw have their own previews: Alcaraz v Lehečka and Djokovic v de Minaur. Every score as the draw plays out is on our Shanghai Masters results page.