Alexander Zverev serving on a blue hard court at the 2026 US Open
US Open

US Open 2026 Day 11 Predictions, Order of Play & Best Bets

Ben Shelton has knocked the defending champion out of the US Open. The eighth seed beat Carlos Alcaraz 6-7(5), 6-1, 6-3, 1-6, 7-6(7) in a quarter-final that began close to 11pm local time and finished after two in the morning, taking the deciding tie-break 10-7 to reach the semi-finals. Alcaraz had been the cleanest man in the draw, 14-4 in sets with 68 games conceded, and had not been beyond four sets all fortnight.

That makes the men’s semi-final an all-American one. Frances Tiafoe got there the hard way too, two sets down to Alex Michelsen before winning the last three 7-5, 6-3, 7-6(6) to end the unseeded run. Tiafoe meets Shelton for a place in the final.

The first women’s semi-final is settled as well: Aryna Sabalenka came through two tie-breaks against the Wimbledon champion Linda Nosková, and Jessica Pegula recovered from a set down against Emma Navarro. Sabalenka meets Pegula for a place in the final.

Catch up in our Day 10 report, and see the wider picture in the US Open 2026 preview, the outright betting tips and our tournament predictions. Build your own bracket in the men’s draw predictor or the women’s draw predictor. Today’s slip is in our US Open Day 11 acca tips.

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Day 10 Results: Shelton Beats the Defending Champion

All four Day 10 quarter-finals, in full.

Match Result Score
Shelton (8) d. Alcaraz (2) The defending champion is out; Shelton took the deciding tie-break 10-7 6-7(5), 6-1, 6-3, 1-6, 7-6(7)
Tiafoe (11) d. Michelsen Two sets down, then three straight to reach the semi-finals 5-7, 3-6, 7-5, 6-3, 7-6(6)
Sabalenka (1) d. Nosková (6) Two tie-breaks either side of a lost set 7-6(1), 3-6, 7-6(7)
Pegula (3) d. Navarro (26) A set down, then took the last two 3-6, 6-4, 6-3

How Day 10’s bets landed

One from three, and the one that got away was the headline. Aryna Sabalenka won as advised, though not comfortably: 7-6(1), 3-6, 7-6(7), her first lost set of the fortnight. The named bet on Alex Michelsen looked right for two sets and did not survive the next three. And the bet on Carlos Alcaraz lost.

The reasoning on that one is worth owning. We made Alcaraz the pick on court time, 42 games conceded to Shelton’s 65 going in, and treated the gap as the argument against him. It was the wrong read: Ben Shelton had needed four sets in each of his first three matches and then won a five-set quarter-final anyway, while the freshest man in the draw was the one who ran out of answers in the deciding tie-break.

All three slips went down with it. The Favourites Slip had Sabalenka and Pegula home and needed only Alcaraz. The Value Slip went with Michelsen. The Straight Sets Slip broke the moment Sabalenka dropped the second set, a sixth straight failure for a bet that should be expected to fail most days.

US Open 2026 Day 11 order of play

The last four quarter-finals are all on Arthur Ashe, two in the day session and two at night. The exact order is confirmed on the day.

Arthur Ashe Stadium

Winners here complete the semi-final line-up. Both first semi-finals are already set: Tiafoe v Shelton in the men’s, where Shelton leads the head-to-head 3-1 with two of their four meetings played at the US Open, and Sabalenka v Pegula in the women’s, where Sabalenka leads 9-4.

Alexander Zverev v Botic van de Zandschulp

Alexander Zverev is the top seed and the last man standing from the top of the men’s draw, but he has not had a clean fortnight. Two five-setters to open, against Lorenzo Sonego and Quentin Halys, before he tidied up with wins over 25th seed Alejandro Tabilo and 21st seed Luciano Darderi 6-2, 6-2, 7-6(3). He is 12-4 in sets with 72 games conceded.

Botic van de Zandschulp has the better win of the two: 6th seed Alex de Minaur in straight sets in the second round. He has also had the harder road since, five sets against 31st seed Zizou Bergs and then five more against Arthur Géa from two sets down, the longest match of that round. Identical 12-4 in sets, but 77 games conceded and two five-setters back to back. On a quick court the serve keeps him in it; the legs are the argument against him.

Best bet: Alexander Zverev to win — odds-on at Betway (approx odds).

Karen Khachanov v Alexander Blockx

The most evenly matched of the four on the numbers. Karen Khachanov is unseeded and has beaten the 3rd seed Félix Auger-Aliassime and, in five sets, 14th seed Learner Tien. He is 12-3 in sets with 50 games conceded.

Alexander Blockx is 12-3 with 53 conceded, so there is almost nothing between them. The Belgian has beaten 5th seed Flavio Cobolli and 24th seed Francisco Cerúndolo, closing the second of those out with two 7-5 sets. The 21-year-old also reached the Madrid semi-finals as a qualifier this year, beating Félix Auger-Aliassime, Cerúndolo and the defending champion there, so the stage is not the problem. Khachanov has already won a five-setter this fortnight, which is the only real separator.

Best bet: Karen Khachanov to win — priced up at Betfred (approx odds).

Coco Gauff v Mirra Andreeva

Coco Gauff has not lost a set: 8-0, 29 games conceded, and a fourth-round win over 14th seed Iva Jovic 6-1, 6-4 that was the most straightforward of that round. She has the crowd as well.

Mirra Andreeva has conceded fewer games than Gauff, 28, and has dropped one set, coming from behind to beat 24th seed Anastasia Potapova 5-7, 6-4, 6-3. On games conceded there is a single game between them across four matches, 29 to 28, which is as close as this round gets.

No named bet on this one. The numbers are level, the prices are short on both sides, and there is no edge worth taking.

Zheng Qinwen v Elena Rybakina

Zheng Qinwen is the story of the fortnight. She came through qualifying, and she has now beaten 22nd seed Madison Keys from 1-6 down and then Iga Świątek 7-5, 6-3 to become the first qualifier to beat Świątek at a Grand Slam. Two of her four wins have come after losing the first set, against Liutova and Keys.

Elena Rybakina is the cleanest player left in either draw: 8-0 in sets, 25 games conceded in four matches, and a 6-1, 6-4 win over 13th seed Naomi Osaka in the fourth round. Zheng has needed to climb out of a hole in most of her matches, and Rybakina’s serve is the worst possible surface on which to try that.

Best bet: Elena Rybakina to win — odds-on at William Hill (approx odds).

US Open 2026 Day 11 acca

Three slips for the last four quarter-finals are in our US Open 2026 Day 11 acca tips: a favourites slip, a value slip on the two underdogs to take a set, and the straight-sets lottery ticket.

How to watch US Open 2026

Sky Sports holds the UK rights, with coverage on Sky Sports Tennis and streaming through NOW. Day-session play on Arthur Ashe starts at 5pm BST and the night session follows at midnight BST. Full details are in our how to watch US Open guide.

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More US Open 2026 Coverage

Daily predictions & order of play: Day 2 · Day 3 · Day 4 · Day 5 · Day 6 · Day 7 · Day 8 · Day 9 · Day 10 · Day 11

Daily acca tips: Day 2 · Day 3 · Day 4 · Day 5 · Day 6 · Day 7 · Day 8 · Day 9 · Day 10 · Day 11

18+ | New customers only | Please Gamble Responsibly | Full T&Cs apply | BeGambleAware.org. Odds are approximate at the time of writing and subject to change.